CIF Playoff Projections, October 25

Week Ten

OCTOBER 25

This will be my last CIF Projection post prior to this year's playoffs. After this, the next projection you'll see will be the actual bracket, as posted by the CIF on Sunday, October 31st.

This entire process has been both a terrific learning experience, and great fun. Thanks to all the readers, coaches, media members who reached out and/or offered feedback. Your insights were all greatly appreciated. Thank all of you for clicking on and reading, whether you agreed, disagreed or were indifferent to the projections, isn't as important, as trying to generate some interest for all the teams involved. I hope to have something fun to share once playoff start as well. We're in the lap, trying to figure that out as we speak.

So, here we go, 218 teams, 172 Automatic Qualifiers (AQ) and 46 At-Large Teams. In continuing with what we've done in the last two projections, I've made the Open Division (Division 1) a ten-team bracket, based on the Cal Preps ratings breakdown.

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NOTES FOR THIS WEEK

In determining AQ, when teams were tied for a spot, the first tie-breaker was head-to-head, with the winning team, getting the higher spot. If the teams had not played yet, and there are a lot of match-ups this week, that will determine league titles, I just went with the team that had the higher Cal Preps rating.

With one week remaining, we've decided in include some teams with records under .500 as At-Large teams in the field. The parameters for which teams we included were the following:

The teams could only be one game below .500, and had to have a Cal Preps rating of 20 or more, accounting for the margin of error for teams that could be over .500 with a win this week, and teams that might fall out of AQ status with a loss.

As I’ve previously outlines, the Playoff Bulletin released last month by the CIF seemed to be very specific that At-Large teams will need to be over .500.

But, in talking to media and coaches, all seemed to agree that there would be some exceptions, particularly in the upper divisions of pairings.

As far as the brackets, whenever possible, we give benefit of the doubt in seedings to the AQ teams. I’ve done my best to make sure the top four seeds are all Automatic Qualifiers. There are some exceptions, based on the breakdowns of the ratings.

If you want to check the previous weeks, they’re linked below:

1. Week 9

2. Week 8

3. Week 7

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ODDS AND ENDS

Additionally, the following teams, based on their Cal Prep Rating, fell within range for At-Large bids, but were not considered, because their overall record was below .500.

1. J Serra - Trinity

2. San Juan Hills - South Coast

3. Damien - Baseline

4. Wilson (LA) - Mt. Baldy 4

5. Notre Dame - Mission

6. Tesoro - South Coast

7. Crespi - Angelus

8. Mira Costa - Bay

9. Golden Valley - Foothill

10. Great Oak - Southwestern

11. Santiago - Big VIII

12. Aliso Niguel - Sea View

13. Cathedral (LA) - Mission

14. ML King - Big VIII

15. Lompoc - Channel

16. Redlands E Valley - Citrus Belt

17. Calabasas - Marmonte

18. Oxnard - Channel

19. Rancho Verde - Ivy

20. Los Osos - Citrus 4

21. Paramount - San Gabriel

22. Segerstrom - Big 4

23. Murrieta Mesa - Southwestern

24. Brentwood - Gold Coast

25. Newbury Park - Camino

26. Katella - Big 4

27. Corona - Big VIII

28. Victor Valley - Desert Sky

29. Canyon (Ventura) - Foothill

30. Royal - Canyon

31. Valencia/OC - Empire

32. Sonora - Freeway

33. South Torrance - Pioneer

34. Grand Terrace - San Andreas

35. Esperanza - North Hills

36. Diamond Ranch - Valle Vista

37. Moorpark - Camino

38. Redondo - Bay

39. Sultana - Mojave River

40. Compton - Moore

41. Paloma Valley - Sunbelt

42. Los Altos - Valle Vista

43. Burroughs - Pacific

44. Dos Pueblos - Channel

45. Redlands - Citrus Belt

46. Arcadia - Pacific

47. Fountain Valley - Sunset

48. Hillcrest - River Valley

49. Whittier - Del Rio

50. Fullerton - Freeway

51. Rancho Christian - Freelance

52. San Marcos - Pacific View

53. Hemet - Sunbelt

54. Hesperia - Mojave River

55. Chaffey - San Antonio

56. Carter - Sunkist

57. Estancia - Orange Coast

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Here’s a breakdown of this week’s projected, At-Large Bids, by League:

Angelus (1): St. Francis

Baseline (2): Rancho Cucamonga, Chino Hills

Camino Real (1): Cantwell-Sacred Heart

Canyon (2): Oak Park, Thousand Oaks

Citrus Belt (1): Yucaipa

Citrus Coast (1): Fillmore

Crestview (2): Villa Park, El Modena

Del Rey (1): Harvard-Westlake

Del Rio (1): California

Desert Empire (3): Palm Springs, Rancho Mirage, La Quinta

Desert Valley (1): Cathedral City

Empire (1): Kennedy-OC

Foothill (1): Valencia

Freelance (2): St Margaret's, Capo Valley Christian

Gold Coast (1): Paraclete

Golden (1): Quartz Hill

Inland Valley (2): Moreno Valley, Riverside Poly

Ivy (1): Elsinore

Marmonte (1): Westlake

Mission (1): Chaminade

Moore (1): LB Jordan

Mountain West (2): Charter Oak, Alta Loma

North Hills (1): Brea-Olinda

Olympic Village (1): Christian

Orange Coast (1): Calvary Chapel

Pacific Hills (2): Portola, Laguna Hills

Pioneer (2): El Segundo, Torrance

Rio Hondo (1): La Canada

San Andreas (1): Colton

Sea View (1): Trabuco Hills

Southwestern (1): Temecula Valley

Suburban (1): Norwalk

Sunset (2): Newport Harbor, Huntington Beach

Trinity (2): Santa Margarita, Orange Lutheran

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LAST FIVE AT-LARGE TEAMS IN

42. La Canada - Rio Hondo

43. Calvary Chapel - Orange Coast

44. Quartz Hill - Golden

45. Capo Valley Christian - Freelance

46. Colton - San Andreas

LAST FIVE AT-LARGE TEAMS OUT

47. Yucca Valley - Desert Valley

48. Barstow - Desert Sky

49. West Valley - Mountain Pass

50. Western Christian - Ambassador

51. Viewpoint - Gold Coast

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DIVISION 14

All-AQ Bracket, featuring a couple of teams from bigger leagues, that might be able to make a run.

1. San Bernardino - Mountain Valley AQ

2. Montclair - Mount Baldy 4 AQ

3. Riverside Prep - Cross Valley AQ

4. Magnolia - Orange AQ

5. Verbum Dei - Santa Fe AQ

6. Bassett - Miramonte AQ

7. Hawthorne - Ocean AQ

8. Rialto - Skyline AQ

9. Garey - Miramonte AQ

10. La Quinta/OC - Garden Grove AQ

11. Hamilton - South Valley AQ

12. El Monte - Mission Valley AQ

13. Artesia - 605 AQ

14. Nuview Bridge - South Valley AQ

15. Azusa - Mountview AQ

16. CA Military - South Valley AQ

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DIVISION 13 (Two At-Large)

Fourteen AQ in this breakdown, with the last two At-Large entries into the field. Potential for an All-Almont final, between San Gabriel and Bell Gardens. Arlington, sneaks in as an AQ after back-to-back wins in the River Valley, over Hillcrest and La Sierra. Westminster and Cerritos with a potentially fun regional match-up on the 2/15 line. OC/IE Clash with Tahquitz and Woodbridge in the 5/12 pairing.

1. San Gabriel - Almont AQ

2. Westminster - Pac 4 AQ

3. Bell Gardens - Almont AQ

4. Heritage Christian - Olympic AQ

5. Tahquitz - Mountain Pass AQ

6. Capo Valley Christian - Freelance At-Large

7. South Pasadena - Rio Hondo AQ

8. Rosemead - Mission Valley AQ

9. Colton - San Andreas At-Large

10. Anaheim - Orange AQ

11. Trinity Classic - Cross Valley AQ

12. Woodbridge - Pacific Valley AQ

13. Jurupa Valley - Mountain Valley AQ

14. Costa Mesa Orange Coast AQ

15. Cerritos 605 AQ

16. Arlington River Valley AQ

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DIVISION 12 (Seven At-Large)

We’ll call this the “Randy Newman Bracket.” From the South Bay, to the Valley, the OC and the IE, it’s all over the place. Regional equity at the top of the division from 1 to 4, with some great crossover match-ups. OC and IE in the 4/13 pairing, between Rim of the World and Garden Grove Santiago, while Norwalk and Indio could be interesting on the 5/12 line. Solid 8/9 first-rounder, with potential Walnut vs. La Cañada meeting.

1. Knight - Golden AQ

2. Pasadena Poly - Rio Hondo AQ

3. Rancho Alamitos - Garden Grove AQ

4. Rim of the World - Skyline AQ

5. Norwalk - Suburban At-Large

6. Cantwell-Sacred-Heart - Camino Real At-Large

7. Lakewood - Moore AQ

8. Walnut - Hacienda AQ

9. La Cañada - Rio Hondo At-Large

10. Riverside Poly - Inland Valley At-Large

11. El Segundo - Pioneer At-Large

12. Indio - Desert Valley AQ

13. Santiago-OC Garden Grove AQ

14. Diamond Bar - Hacienda AQ

15. Quartz Hill - Golden At-Large

16. Calvary Chapel - Orange Coast At-Large

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DIVISION 11 (Five At-Large)

Another Heavy At-Large presence in this breakdown. 8/9 line immediately jumps out, with potential AB Miller-Kennedy match-up. LB Jordan-Marina at 6/11 could be solid regional pairing, that could generate interest. Schurr-Vista Del Lago at 4/13 a showdown between Almont and Inland Valley League.

1. Nordhoff - Citrus Coast AQ

2. Granite Hills - Desert Sky AQ

3. Baldwin Park - Mt Baldy AQ

4. Schurr - Almont AQ

5. Village Christian - Olympic At-Large

6. LB Jordan - Moore At-Large

7. Big Bear - Cross Valley AQ

8. AB Miller - Mountain Valley AQ

9. Kennedy/OC - Empire At-Large

10. Harvard-Westlake - Del Rey At-Large

11. Marina - Big 4 AQ

12. Northwood - Pacific Valley AQ

13. Vista Del Lago - Inland Valley AQ

14. Lakeside - Inland Valley AQ

15. Twenty-Nine Palms - Desert Valley AQ

16. Moreno Valley - Inland Valley At-Large

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DIVISION 10 (Four At-Large)

No disrespect to the top of the bracket, but this one looks like it’s screaming for a sleeper. But who will it be? Could the Hawks of Laguna Hills be primed for a run? How about the boys at Palmdale? Can Kaiser, out of the Sunkist and IE, potentially pull off some magic? Could one of the Del Rey schools put it all together , and just get on a roll here? Lots of regions represented in a wide-open field. Northview-Burbank at 3/14, Canyon-Coachella Valley at 4/13 and Colony-Torrance at 8/9 all carry some intrigue, among the first-rounders.

1. Hueneme - Citrus Coast AQ

2. Covina - Sierra AQ

3. Northview - Valle Vista AQ

4. Canyon/OC - North Hills AQ

5. Laguna Hills - Pacific Hills At-Large

6. Palmdale - Golden AQ

7. Kaiser - Sunkist AQ

8. Colony - Citrus 4 AQ

9. Torrance - Pioneer At-Large

10. Fillmore - Citrus Coast At-Large

11. Salesian - Del Rey AQ

12. St Anthony - Del Rey AQ

13. Coachella Valley - Desert Valley AQ

14. Burbank - Pacific AQ

15. Cathedral City - Desert Valley At-Large

16. West Torrance - Pioneer AQ

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DIVISION 9 (Six At-Large)

We’ll call this one the 60/71/57 bracket, as you could log some miles along that corridor, with some of these teams, but OC, South Bay and Valley also represented well here. Bill & Ted give San Dimas a shout ath the top of the group, but how about 7/10 pairing of Western and Peninsula? Brea-Olinda vs. Chino on 3/14 line could generate some regional interest, while Portola-Ventura coupling at 5/12, could bring some cars South from the 101 to the 405.

1. San Dimas - Valle Vista AQ

2. Ontario Christian - Ambassador AQ

3. Brea-Olinda - North Hills At-Large

4. Arroyo - Mission Valley AQ

5. Portola - Pacific Hills At-Large

6. Rancho Mirage - Desert Empire At-Large

7. Western/OC - Orange AQ

8. Garden Grove - Big 4 AQ

9. Oak Park - Canyon At-Large

10. Peninsula - Bay AQ

11. West Covina - San Antonio AQ

12. Ventura - Pacific View AQ

13. Claremont San Antonio AQ

14. Chino - Sierra AQ

15. Thousand Oaks - Canyon At-Large

16. La Quinta - Desert Empire At-Large

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DIVISION 8 (Three At-Large)

Heavy OC/IE presence here, but don’t count out Paraclete as a potential sleeper. Intriguing 5/12 coupling in first round, between Xavier Prep and Orange Vista. Elsinore on the nine line could make things interesting, though they could still move to up to an AQ with a win in week 10. Valley Christian vs. Eisenhower a strong crossover pairing for a first-rounder.

1. El Dorado - North Hills AQ

2. Aquinas - Ambassador AQ

3. Ramona - River Valley AQ

4. Pacifica/OC - Empire AQ

5. Xavier Prep - Desert Empire AQ

6. Valley Christian - Olympic AQ

7. Silverado - Desert Sky AQ

8. Serrano - Mojave River AQ

9. Elsinore - Ivy At-Large

10. Paraclete Gold Coast At-Large

11. Eisenhower - San Andreas AQ

12. Orange Vista - Sun Belt AQ

13. Santa Ynez - Pacific View AQ

14. Laguna Beach - Pac 4 AQ

15. Highland - Golden AQ

16. St Margaret's - Freelance At-Large

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DIVISION 7 (Three At-Large)

Couple of teams from both Gold Coast and Ivy end up in this division. La Mirada vs. Temecula Valley on 4/13 line, and Sunny Hills-Hart at 3/14 both jump out. Leuzinger-Muir pairing at 6/11 looks to be solid crossover match-up, as well as Temescal Canyon-Buena at 8/9.

1. Campbell Hall - Gold Coast AQ

2. El Rancho - Del Rio AQ

3. Sunny Hills - Freeway AQ

4. La Mirada - Suburban AQ

5. Pius X - Camino Real AQ

6. Leuzinger - Ocean AQ

7. Troy - Freeway AQ

8. Temescal Canyon - Ivy AQ

9. Buena - Pacific View AQ

10. Rio Hondo - Gold Coast AQ

11. John Muir - Pacific AQ

12. Palm Springs - Desert Empire At-Large

13. Temecula Valley Southwestern At Large

14. Hart - Foothill AQ

15. Heritage - Ivy AQ

16. California - Del Rio At-Large

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DIVISION 6 (Four At-Large)

Top four teams spell it out, from LA to OC, to the Desert and San Gabriel Valley. Lots of good teams in this division. It’ll be a gauntlet, for whomever wants to win it. 4/13 pairing of Monrovia and Pasadena should generate some regional interest in SGV for a first-rounder, as would 5/12 coupling of Yucaipa and Norte Vista in the IE. Dominguez and North Torrance is another potential backyard brawl, looming on the 7/10 line. Four very strong At-Large entries in this division.

1. Culver City - Bay AQ

2. Dana Hills - Pacific Hills AQ

3. Shadow Hills -Desert Empire AQ

4. Monrovia - Rio Hondo AQ

5. Yucaipa - Citrus Belt At-Large

6. Santa Barbara - Channel AQ

7. Dominguez - San Gabriel AQ

8. Alta Loma - Mountain West At-Large

9. La Habra - Freeway AQ

10. North Torrance - Pioneer AQ

11. Millikan - Moore AQ

12. Norte Vista - River Valley AQ

13. Pasadena - Pacific AQ

14. Agoura - Canyon AQ

15. Charter Oak - Mountain West At-Large

16. Huntington Beach - Sunset At-Large

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DIVISION 5 (Four At-Large)

Great regional balance in this division, between IE, Orange County, with SFV/Santa Clarita/Ventura region as well. Trabuco Hills and Santa Ana at 5/12 lines up as an OC Slugfest, while Summit, out of the IE, gets a shot at Valencia from the Foothill, in potential 8/9 First-Rounder, the winner getting Beaumont. St. Genevieve - Pacifica at 4/13 would save some time on bus travel, while John W. North and Mayfair at 3/14 would be solid crossover game.

1. Beaumont - Citrus Belt AQ

2. Palm Desert - Desert Empire AQ

3. John W. North - Sunbelt AQ

4. St Genevieve - Camino Real AQ

5. Trabuco Hills - Sea View At-Large

6. St Paul - Angelus AQ

7. Rio Mesa - Channel AQ

8. Valencia - Foothill At-Large

9. Summit - San Andreas AQ

10. Capo Valley - Sea View AQ

11. Camariillo - Camino AQ

12. Santa Ana - Orange Coast AQ

13. Pacifica/Oxnard - Channel AQ

14. Mayfair - Suburban AQ

15. Westlake - Marmonte At-Large

16. Newport Harbor - Sunset At-Large

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DIVISION 4 (Three At-Large)

Heavy OC/IE presence in this division, but don’t sleep on squads like St. Francis or Oaks Christian, who could easily make a run. West Ranch and Chino Hills solid crossover match-up at 4/13, as is 7/10 pairing of St. Francis and San Jacinto. Bonita and Jurupa Hills, solid potential regional match-up at 5/12.

1. Cypress - Empire AQ

2. El Toro - Sea View AQ

3. Upland - Baseline AQ

4. West Ranch - Foothill AQ

5. Bonita - Mountain West AQ

6. Orange - Orange Coast AQ

7. St Francis - Angelus At-Large

8. Palos Verdes - Bay AQ

9. Oaks Christian Marmonte AQ

10. San Jacinto - Mountain Pass AQ

11. Chaparral - Southwestern AQ

12. Jurupa Hills - Sunkist AQ

13. Chino Hills - Baseline At-Large

14. Irvine - Pacific Hills

15. Tustin - Empire AQ

16. El Modena - Crestview At-Large

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DIVISION 3 (Three At-Large)

Some good regional match-ups in this division. Murrieta Valley and Roosevelt showcases the IE, Glendora and Ayala and Glendora, separated by about 15 miles of the 71 Freeway, and Loyola and Long Beach Poly, potential first-round match-up of teams that played in 2000 & 2003 CIF Division 1 Finals.

1. Serra - Mission AQ

2. Bishop Diego - Camino AQ

3. Loyola - Angeles AQ

4. Murrieta Valley - Southwestern AQ

5. Downey - San Gabriel AQ

6. Villa Park - Crestview At-Large

7. Chaminade - Mission At-Large

8. Glendora - Citrus 4 AQ

9. Ayala - Mountain West AQ

10. Apple Valley - Mojave River AQ

11. Rancho Cucamonga - Baseline At-Large

12. Oak Hills - Mojave River AQ

13. Roosevelt - Big VIII AQ

14. LB Poly - Moore AQ

15. Lawndale - Pioneer AQ

16. La Serna - Del Rio AQ

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DIVISION 2

Full division of AQ, and very good teams. Would not be surprised if the committee moved up a couple of At-Large teams, to split out this division. Balanced region, with lots of teams form some strong leagues. OC, Valley, IE and South Bay/LA repped well amongst this group.

1. Edison - Sunset AQ

2. Alemany - Mission AQ

3. Vista Murrieta - Southwestern AQ

4. Warren - San Gabriel AQ

5. St Bonaventure - Marmonte AQ

6. Inglewood - Ocean AQ

7. Cajon - Citrus Belt AQ

8. Bishop Amat - Mission AQ

9. Yorba Linda - Crestview AQ

10. Corona Del Mar - Sunset AQ

11. San Clemente - South Coast AQ

12. Etiwanda - Baseline AQ

13. Citrus Valley - Citrus Belt AQ

14. Saugus - Foothill AQ

15. Foothill/OC - Crestview AQ

16. Simi Valley - Canyon AQ

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DIVISION 1 (Two At-Large)

This Division looks pretty set. Servite-St. John Bosco highlights Week 10 Trinity League schedule, San Clemente-Mission Viejo could potentially shift things around in South Coast League, while Los Alamitos looks to finish off Sunset League play against Newport Harbor, a team trying to stay alive for an AQ berth. Both Santa Margarita and Orange Lutheran finish with .500 records win or lose, so can probably pencil them into this Division as At-Larges. In the Big VIII, Norco finishes up against Roosevelt, so game could affect Mustangs’ standing. If Paraclete can somehow upend Sierra Canyon, do they still get in as an At-Large with a record of 4-5? Also, will the committee go with eight or ten teams in this division?

1. Mater Dei - Trinity AQ

2. Servite - Trinity AQ

3. St John Bosco - Trinity AQ

4. Centennial - Big VIII AQ

5. Mission Viejo - South Coast AQ

6. Santa Margarita - Trinity At-Large

7. Los Alamitos - Sunset AQ

8. Norco - Big VIII AQ

9. Orange Lutheran - Trinity At-Large

10. Sierra Canyon - Gold Coast AQ

Thanks again to everyone for reading, and enjoy this weekend’s games.