CIF Playoff Projections, October 25
Week Ten
OCTOBER 25
This will be my last CIF Projection post prior to this year's playoffs. After this, the next projection you'll see will be the actual bracket, as posted by the CIF on Sunday, October 31st.
This entire process has been both a terrific learning experience, and great fun. Thanks to all the readers, coaches, media members who reached out and/or offered feedback. Your insights were all greatly appreciated. Thank all of you for clicking on and reading, whether you agreed, disagreed or were indifferent to the projections, isn't as important, as trying to generate some interest for all the teams involved. I hope to have something fun to share once playoff start as well. We're in the lap, trying to figure that out as we speak.
So, here we go, 218 teams, 172 Automatic Qualifiers (AQ) and 46 At-Large Teams. In continuing with what we've done in the last two projections, I've made the Open Division (Division 1) a ten-team bracket, based on the Cal Preps ratings breakdown.
NOTES FOR THIS WEEK
In determining AQ, when teams were tied for a spot, the first tie-breaker was head-to-head, with the winning team, getting the higher spot. If the teams had not played yet, and there are a lot of match-ups this week, that will determine league titles, I just went with the team that had the higher Cal Preps rating.
With one week remaining, we've decided in include some teams with records under .500 as At-Large teams in the field. The parameters for which teams we included were the following:
The teams could only be one game below .500, and had to have a Cal Preps rating of 20 or more, accounting for the margin of error for teams that could be over .500 with a win this week, and teams that might fall out of AQ status with a loss.
As I’ve previously outlines, the Playoff Bulletin released last month by the CIF seemed to be very specific that At-Large teams will need to be over .500.
But, in talking to media and coaches, all seemed to agree that there would be some exceptions, particularly in the upper divisions of pairings.
As far as the brackets, whenever possible, we give benefit of the doubt in seedings to the AQ teams. I’ve done my best to make sure the top four seeds are all Automatic Qualifiers. There are some exceptions, based on the breakdowns of the ratings.
If you want to check the previous weeks, they’re linked below:
ODDS AND ENDS
Additionally, the following teams, based on their Cal Prep Rating, fell within range for At-Large bids, but were not considered, because their overall record was below .500.
J Serra - Trinity
San Juan Hills - South Coast
Damien - Baseline
Wilson (LA) - Mt. Baldy 4
Notre Dame - Mission
Tesoro - South Coast
Crespi - Angelus
Mira Costa - Bay
Golden Valley - Foothill
Great Oak - Southwestern
Santiago - Big VIII
Aliso Niguel - Sea View
Cathedral (LA) - Mission
ML King - Big VIII
Lompoc - Channel
Redlands E Valley - Citrus Belt
Calabasas - Marmonte
Oxnard - Channel
Rancho Verde - Ivy
Los Osos - Citrus 4
Paramount - San Gabriel
Segerstrom - Big 4
Murrieta Mesa - Southwestern
Brentwood - Gold Coast
Newbury Park - Camino
Katella - Big 4
Corona - Big VIII
Victor Valley - Desert Sky
Canyon (Ventura) - Foothill
Royal - Canyon
Valencia/OC - Empire
Sonora - Freeway
South Torrance - Pioneer
Grand Terrace - San Andreas
Esperanza - North Hills
Diamond Ranch - Valle Vista
Moorpark - Camino
Redondo - Bay
Sultana - Mojave River
Compton - Moore
Paloma Valley - Sunbelt
Los Altos - Valle Vista
Burroughs - Pacific
Dos Pueblos - Channel
Redlands - Citrus Belt
Arcadia - Pacific
Fountain Valley - Sunset
Hillcrest - River Valley
Whittier - Del Rio
Fullerton - Freeway
Rancho Christian - Freelance
San Marcos - Pacific View
Hemet - Sunbelt
Hesperia - Mojave River
Chaffey - San Antonio
Carter - Sunkist
Estancia - Orange Coast
Here’s a breakdown of this week’s projected, At-Large Bids, by League:
Angelus (1): St. Francis
Baseline (2): Rancho Cucamonga, Chino Hills
Camino Real (1): Cantwell-Sacred Heart
Canyon (2): Oak Park, Thousand Oaks
Citrus Belt (1): Yucaipa
Citrus Coast (1): Fillmore
Crestview (2): Villa Park, El Modena
Del Rey (1): Harvard-Westlake
Del Rio (1): California
Desert Empire (3): Palm Springs, Rancho Mirage, La Quinta
Desert Valley (1): Cathedral City
Empire (1): Kennedy-OC
Foothill (1): Valencia
Freelance (2): St Margaret's, Capo Valley Christian
Gold Coast (1): Paraclete
Golden (1): Quartz Hill
Inland Valley (2): Moreno Valley, Riverside Poly
Ivy (1): Elsinore
Marmonte (1): Westlake
Mission (1): Chaminade
Moore (1): LB Jordan
Mountain West (2): Charter Oak, Alta Loma
North Hills (1): Brea-Olinda
Olympic Village (1): Christian
Orange Coast (1): Calvary Chapel
Pacific Hills (2): Portola, Laguna Hills
Pioneer (2): El Segundo, Torrance
Rio Hondo (1): La Canada
San Andreas (1): Colton
Sea View (1): Trabuco Hills
Southwestern (1): Temecula Valley
Suburban (1): Norwalk
Sunset (2): Newport Harbor, Huntington Beach
Trinity (2): Santa Margarita, Orange Lutheran
LAST FIVE AT-LARGE TEAMS IN
La Canada - Rio Hondo
Calvary Chapel - Orange Coast
Quartz Hill - Golden
Capo Valley Christian - Freelance
Colton - San Andreas
LAST FIVE AT-LARGE TEAMS OUT
Yucca Valley - Desert Valley
Barstow - Desert Sky
West Valley - Mountain Pass
Western Christian - Ambassador
Viewpoint - Gold Coast
DIVISION 14
All-AQ Bracket, featuring a couple of teams from bigger leagues, that might be able to make a run.
San Bernardino - Mountain Valley AQ
Montclair - Mount Baldy 4 AQ
Riverside Prep - Cross Valley AQ
Magnolia - Orange AQ
Verbum Dei - Santa Fe AQ
Bassett - Miramonte AQ
Hawthorne - Ocean AQ
Rialto - Skyline AQ
Garey - Miramonte AQ
La Quinta/OC - Garden Grove AQ
Hamilton - South Valley AQ
El Monte - Mission Valley AQ
Artesia - 605 AQ
Nuview Bridge - South Valley AQ
Azusa - Mountview AQ
CA Military - South Valley AQ
DIVISION 13 (Two At-Large)
Fourteen AQ in this breakdown, with the last two At-Large entries into the field. Potential for an All-Almont final, between San Gabriel and Bell Gardens. Arlington, sneaks in as an AQ after back-to-back wins in the River Valley, over Hillcrest and La Sierra. Westminster and Cerritos with a potentially fun regional match-up on the 2/15 line. OC/IE Clash with Tahquitz and Woodbridge in the 5/12 pairing.
San Gabriel - Almont AQ
Westminster - Pac 4 AQ
Bell Gardens - Almont AQ
Heritage Christian - Olympic AQ
Tahquitz - Mountain Pass AQ
Capo Valley Christian - Freelance At-Large
South Pasadena - Rio Hondo AQ
Rosemead - Mission Valley AQ
Colton - San Andreas At-Large
Anaheim - Orange AQ
Trinity Classic - Cross Valley AQ
Woodbridge - Pacific Valley AQ
Jurupa Valley - Mountain Valley AQ
Costa Mesa Orange Coast AQ
Cerritos 605 AQ
Arlington River Valley AQ
DIVISION 12 (Seven At-Large)
We’ll call this the “Randy Newman Bracket.” From the South Bay, to the Valley, the OC and the IE, it’s all over the place. Regional equity at the top of the division from 1 to 4, with some great crossover match-ups. OC and IE in the 4/13 pairing, between Rim of the World and Garden Grove Santiago, while Norwalk and Indio could be interesting on the 5/12 line. Solid 8/9 first-rounder, with potential Walnut vs. La Cañada meeting.
Knight - Golden AQ
Pasadena Poly - Rio Hondo AQ
Rancho Alamitos - Garden Grove AQ
Rim of the World - Skyline AQ
Norwalk - Suburban At-Large
Cantwell-Sacred-Heart - Camino Real At-Large
Lakewood - Moore AQ
Walnut - Hacienda AQ
La Cañada - Rio Hondo At-Large
Riverside Poly - Inland Valley At-Large
El Segundo - Pioneer At-Large
Indio - Desert Valley AQ
Santiago-OC Garden Grove AQ
Diamond Bar - Hacienda AQ
Quartz Hill - Golden At-Large
Calvary Chapel - Orange Coast At-Large
DIVISION 11 (Five At-Large)
Another Heavy At-Large presence in this breakdown. 8/9 line immediately jumps out, with potential AB Miller-Kennedy match-up. LB Jordan-Marina at 6/11 could be solid regional pairing, that could generate interest. Schurr-Vista Del Lago at 4/13 a showdown between Almont and Inland Valley League.
Nordhoff - Citrus Coast AQ
Granite Hills - Desert Sky AQ
Baldwin Park - Mt Baldy AQ
Schurr - Almont AQ
Village Christian - Olympic At-Large
LB Jordan - Moore At-Large
Big Bear - Cross Valley AQ
AB Miller - Mountain Valley AQ
Kennedy/OC - Empire At-Large
Harvard-Westlake - Del Rey At-Large
Marina - Big 4 AQ
Northwood - Pacific Valley AQ
Vista Del Lago - Inland Valley AQ
Lakeside - Inland Valley AQ
Twenty-Nine Palms - Desert Valley AQ
Moreno Valley - Inland Valley At-Large
DIVISION 10 (Four At-Large)
No disrespect to the top of the bracket, but this one looks like it’s screaming for a sleeper. But who will it be? Could the Hawks of Laguna Hills be primed for a run? How about the boys at Palmdale? Can Kaiser, out of the Sunkist and IE, potentially pull off some magic? Could one of the Del Rey schools put it all together , and just get on a roll here? Lots of regions represented in a wide-open field. Northview-Burbank at 3/14, Canyon-Coachella Valley at 4/13 and Colony-Torrance at 8/9 all carry some intrigue, among the first-rounders.
Hueneme - Citrus Coast AQ
Covina - Sierra AQ
Northview - Valle Vista AQ
Canyon/OC - North Hills AQ
Laguna Hills - Pacific Hills At-Large
Palmdale - Golden AQ
Kaiser - Sunkist AQ
Colony - Citrus 4 AQ
Torrance - Pioneer At-Large
Fillmore - Citrus Coast At-Large
Salesian - Del Rey AQ
St Anthony - Del Rey AQ
Coachella Valley - Desert Valley AQ
Burbank - Pacific AQ
Cathedral City - Desert Valley At-Large
West Torrance - Pioneer AQ
DIVISION 9 (Six At-Large)
We’ll call this one the 60/71/57 bracket, as you could log some miles along that corridor, with some of these teams, but OC, South Bay and Valley also represented well here. Bill & Ted give San Dimas a shout ath the top of the group, but how about 7/10 pairing of Western and Peninsula? Brea-Olinda vs. Chino on 3/14 line could generate some regional interest, while Portola-Ventura coupling at 5/12, could bring some cars South from the 101 to the 405.
San Dimas - Valle Vista AQ
Ontario Christian - Ambassador AQ
Brea-Olinda - North Hills At-Large
Arroyo - Mission Valley AQ
Portola - Pacific Hills At-Large
Rancho Mirage - Desert Empire At-Large
Western/OC - Orange AQ
Garden Grove - Big 4 AQ
Oak Park - Canyon At-Large
Peninsula - Bay AQ
West Covina - San Antonio AQ
Ventura - Pacific View AQ
Claremont San Antonio AQ
Chino - Sierra AQ
Thousand Oaks - Canyon At-Large
La Quinta - Desert Empire At-Large
DIVISION 8 (Three At-Large)
Heavy OC/IE presence here, but don’t count out Paraclete as a potential sleeper. Intriguing 5/12 coupling in first round, between Xavier Prep and Orange Vista. Elsinore on the nine line could make things interesting, though they could still move to up to an AQ with a win in week 10. Valley Christian vs. Eisenhower a strong crossover pairing for a first-rounder.
El Dorado - North Hills AQ
Aquinas - Ambassador AQ
Ramona - River Valley AQ
Pacifica/OC - Empire AQ
Xavier Prep - Desert Empire AQ
Valley Christian - Olympic AQ
Silverado - Desert Sky AQ
Serrano - Mojave River AQ
Elsinore - Ivy At-Large
Paraclete Gold Coast At-Large
Eisenhower - San Andreas AQ
Orange Vista - Sun Belt AQ
Santa Ynez - Pacific View AQ
Laguna Beach - Pac 4 AQ
Highland - Golden AQ
St Margaret's - Freelance At-Large
DIVISION 7 (Three At-Large)
Couple of teams from both Gold Coast and Ivy end up in this division. La Mirada vs. Temecula Valley on 4/13 line, and Sunny Hills-Hart at 3/14 both jump out. Leuzinger-Muir pairing at 6/11 looks to be solid crossover match-up, as well as Temescal Canyon-Buena at 8/9.
Campbell Hall - Gold Coast AQ
El Rancho - Del Rio AQ
Sunny Hills - Freeway AQ
La Mirada - Suburban AQ
Pius X - Camino Real AQ
Leuzinger - Ocean AQ
Troy - Freeway AQ
Temescal Canyon - Ivy AQ
Buena - Pacific View AQ
Rio Hondo - Gold Coast AQ
John Muir - Pacific AQ
Palm Springs - Desert Empire At-Large
Temecula Valley Southwestern At Large
Hart - Foothill AQ
Heritage - Ivy AQ
California - Del Rio At-Large
DIVISION 6 (Four At-Large)
Top four teams spell it out, from LA to OC, to the Desert and San Gabriel Valley. Lots of good teams in this division. It’ll be a gauntlet, for whomever wants to win it. 4/13 pairing of Monrovia and Pasadena should generate some regional interest in SGV for a first-rounder, as would 5/12 coupling of Yucaipa and Norte Vista in the IE. Dominguez and North Torrance is another potential backyard brawl, looming on the 7/10 line. Four very strong At-Large entries in this division.
Culver City - Bay AQ
Dana Hills - Pacific Hills AQ
Shadow Hills -Desert Empire AQ
Monrovia - Rio Hondo AQ
Yucaipa - Citrus Belt At-Large
Santa Barbara - Channel AQ
Dominguez - San Gabriel AQ
Alta Loma - Mountain West At-Large
La Habra - Freeway AQ
North Torrance - Pioneer AQ
Millikan - Moore AQ
Norte Vista - River Valley AQ
Pasadena - Pacific AQ
Agoura - Canyon AQ
Charter Oak - Mountain West At-Large
Huntington Beach - Sunset At-Large
DIVISION 5 (Four At-Large)
Great regional balance in this division, between IE, Orange County, with SFV/Santa Clarita/Ventura region as well. Trabuco Hills and Santa Ana at 5/12 lines up as an OC Slugfest, while Summit, out of the IE, gets a shot at Valencia from the Foothill, in potential 8/9 First-Rounder, the winner getting Beaumont. St. Genevieve - Pacifica at 4/13 would save some time on bus travel, while John W. North and Mayfair at 3/14 would be solid crossover game.
Beaumont - Citrus Belt AQ
Palm Desert - Desert Empire AQ
John W. North - Sunbelt AQ
St Genevieve - Camino Real AQ
Trabuco Hills - Sea View At-Large
St Paul - Angelus AQ
Rio Mesa - Channel AQ
Valencia - Foothill At-Large
Summit - San Andreas AQ
Capo Valley - Sea View AQ
Camariillo - Camino AQ
Santa Ana - Orange Coast AQ
Pacifica/Oxnard - Channel AQ
Mayfair - Suburban AQ
Westlake - Marmonte At-Large
Newport Harbor - Sunset At-Large
DIVISION 4 (Three At-Large)
Heavy OC/IE presence in this division, but don’t sleep on squads like St. Francis or Oaks Christian, who could easily make a run. West Ranch and Chino Hills solid crossover match-up at 4/13, as is 7/10 pairing of St. Francis and San Jacinto. Bonita and Jurupa Hills, solid potential regional match-up at 5/12.
Cypress - Empire AQ
El Toro - Sea View AQ
Upland - Baseline AQ
West Ranch - Foothill AQ
Bonita - Mountain West AQ
Orange - Orange Coast AQ
St Francis - Angelus At-Large
Palos Verdes - Bay AQ
Oaks Christian Marmonte AQ
San Jacinto - Mountain Pass AQ
Chaparral - Southwestern AQ
Jurupa Hills - Sunkist AQ
Chino Hills - Baseline At-Large
Irvine - Pacific Hills
Tustin - Empire AQ
El Modena - Crestview At-Large
DIVISION 3 (Three At-Large)
Some good regional match-ups in this division. Murrieta Valley and Roosevelt showcases the IE, Glendora and Ayala and Glendora, separated by about 15 miles of the 71 Freeway, and Loyola and Long Beach Poly, potential first-round match-up of teams that played in 2000 & 2003 CIF Division 1 Finals.
Serra - Mission AQ
Bishop Diego - Camino AQ
Loyola - Angeles AQ
Murrieta Valley - Southwestern AQ
Downey - San Gabriel AQ
Villa Park - Crestview At-Large
Chaminade - Mission At-Large
Glendora - Citrus 4 AQ
Ayala - Mountain West AQ
Apple Valley - Mojave River AQ
Rancho Cucamonga - Baseline At-Large
Oak Hills - Mojave River AQ
Roosevelt - Big VIII AQ
LB Poly - Moore AQ
Lawndale - Pioneer AQ
La Serna - Del Rio AQ
DIVISION 2
Full division of AQ, and very good teams. Would not be surprised if the committee moved up a couple of At-Large teams, to split out this division. Balanced region, with lots of teams form some strong leagues. OC, Valley, IE and South Bay/LA repped well amongst this group.
Edison - Sunset AQ
Alemany - Mission AQ
Vista Murrieta - Southwestern AQ
Warren - San Gabriel AQ
St Bonaventure - Marmonte AQ
Inglewood - Ocean AQ
Cajon - Citrus Belt AQ
Bishop Amat - Mission AQ
Yorba Linda - Crestview AQ
Corona Del Mar - Sunset AQ
San Clemente - South Coast AQ
Etiwanda - Baseline AQ
Citrus Valley - Citrus Belt AQ
Saugus - Foothill AQ
Foothill/OC - Crestview AQ
Simi Valley - Canyon AQ
DIVISION 1 (Two At-Large)
This Division looks pretty set. Servite-St. John Bosco highlights Week 10 Trinity League schedule, San Clemente-Mission Viejo could potentially shift things around in South Coast League, while Los Alamitos looks to finish off Sunset League play against Newport Harbor, a team trying to stay alive for an AQ berth. Both Santa Margarita and Orange Lutheran finish with .500 records win or lose, so can probably pencil them into this Division as At-Larges. In the Big VIII, Norco finishes up against Roosevelt, so game could affect Mustangs’ standing. If Paraclete can somehow upend Sierra Canyon, do they still get in as an At-Large with a record of 4-5? Also, will the committee go with eight or ten teams in this division?
Mater Dei - Trinity AQ
Servite - Trinity AQ
St John Bosco - Trinity AQ
Centennial - Big VIII AQ
Mission Viejo - South Coast AQ
Santa Margarita - Trinity At-Large
Los Alamitos - Sunset AQ
Norco - Big VIII AQ
Orange Lutheran - Trinity At-Large
Sierra Canyon - Gold Coast AQ
Thanks again to everyone for reading, and enjoy this weekend’s games.
For the Gold Coast league. Sierra Canyon and Paraclete are AQs. The league is set up so that they play each other for #1 & #2 in league and don't play the other 4 teams in the league. The other 4 teams play for #3 (AQ) in league.