CIF Projections October 12th (Week 8)

Southern Section Football Playoffs

So, after all that, we’re back for another week of Playoff Projections. Like any team worth its salt, we’re looking to get better every week, so we’ve made some improvements to the process. (ICYMI - Last week’s projections.)

Still using the Cal Preps ratings, as the CIF does, when they put together their brackets, but a couple of wrinkles this week.

We went in and broke the field down into 172 Automatic Qualifiers (AQs) and 46 At-Large teams. As per, CIF mandate, AQs are the top two teams in four and five-team leagues, and the top three teams in leagues for six to eight teams. At this time, in the Southern Section, there are a couple of three-league teams, so we took one team from each of those leagues.

Some of you pointed out that there are teams in the field that have played fewer games, due to COVID restrictions, which is fair. For these most recent projections, I’ve just gone with the Cal Preps numbers for those teams. In fact, there are a couple of teams in the projections this week that have had multiple games canceled. They are included, because, in this space, our barometer in Cal Preps.

AT-LARGE TEAMS

Posted below missive, from 2021-22 CIF Playoff Bulletin, regarding At-Large teams.

After speaking with several coaches and media folks who cover the CIF, I’m going to abide by these parameters. Some teams left out of the field that will be surprising.

As someone who’s covered High School Football for more than a decade now, my inkling is CIF won’t go hard and fast with this rule. But some people I trust have said CIF is adamant that they want to make it harder for teams under .500 to get At-Large bids. Now, some of these teams may very well be over .500 by the time the field is actually put together, but that will be our first list this week.

These are teams, that for now, are not AQs, and under .500. Based on above excerpt from the Playoff Bulletin, I’m leaving them out of the projected field, at this time. I’ll continue to take the temperature of the coaching/reporting community in the coming weeks, on this topic.

Just to give you an idea of where these teams would have landed, I’m including their Cal Preps rating on the chart.

Potential At-Large Teams Under .500 After Week 7 (10/7-10/9)

THE FIELD

So, we’re at 172 AQs and 46 At-Large teams. In determining the AQs, since leagues are at different parts of their schedules, I went with total wins, and then Cal Preps ratings to break any ties, which was also my criteria for determining AQs in some four-team leagues that haven’t begun playing league games as of yet.

When Applicable, I’ll note at-large teams in the field. As far as seeding, used Cal Preps rating, but whenever possible, tried to make top four teams in Division AQs. Again, these are not so much predictions, as they are projections based on the information we have available to us now. The more games that are played, the clearer this picture will become.

Thanks again for reading.

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October 12 Projections for 2021 CIF Southern Section Football Playoffs

DIVISION 14

1. Los Amigos (Garden Grove)

2. Jurupa Valley (Mountain Valley)

3. Magnolia (Orange)

4. Riverside Prep (Cross Valley)

5. University (Pacific Valley)

6. Hawthorne (Ocean)

7. Citrus Hill (Mountain Pass)

8. Verbum Dei (Santa Fe)

9. Santa Rosa Academy (South Valley)

10. Rialto (Skyline)

11. Garey (Miramonte)

12. Hamilton (South Valley)

13. Ganesha (Miramonte)

14. Glenn (605)

15. Nuview Bridge (South Valley)

16. Gladstone (Montview)

Full bracket of AQs in Division 14. NuView Bridge and Gladstone the last two AQs into the field, based on recent wins. Some teams that have struggled of late, like Jurupa Valley and Citrus Hill, get new life in post season, and hope to make a run.

DIVISION 13

1. Rancho Alamitos (Garden Grove)

2. Westminster (Pac 4)

3. Walnut (Hacienda)

4. Fullerton (Freeway)

5. San Marcos (Pacific View)

6. Heritage Christian (Olympic)

7. Estancia (Orange Coast)

8. South Pasadena (Rio Hondo)

9. Bell Gardens (Almont)

10. Anaheim (Orange)

11. Trinity Classical (Cross Valley)

12. Viewpoint (Gold Coast)

13. Cerritos (605)

14. Montclair (Mt. Baldy 4)

15. San Gorgonio (Sunkist)

16. South El Monte (Mission Valley)

OC, Inland and all points in between represented. You drive be a lot of these schools, depending on your path from OC to IE, or vice versa. South Pasadena and Westminster could be the geographical outliers.

DIVISION 12

1. Quartz Hill (Golden)

2. Hemet (Sunbelt)

3. Burroughs-Burbank (Pacific)

4. Northwood (Pacific Valley)

5. La Canada (Rio Hondo) At-Large

6. Knight (Golden) At-Large

7. San Gabriel (Almont)

8. Rim of the World (Skyline)

9. Lakeside (Inland Valley) At-Large

10. Cantwell-Sacred Heart (Camino Real) - At Large

11. Pasadena Poly (Rio Hondo)

12. Santiago-OC (Garden Grove)

13. Rosemead (Mission Valley)

14. Indio (Desert Valley)

15. Colton (San Andreas) At-Large

16. Diamond Bar (Hacienda)

Wide-open bracket in D12. Lakeside and Colton were last two at-large teams into the field, Cantwell-Sacred Heart in an intruiging team, that could get on a roll. Both La Cañada and Knight could make some noise, as at-large teams.

DIVISION 11

1. Big Bear (Cross Valley)

2. Twenty-Nine Palms (Desert Valley) - At Large

3. Coachella Valley (Desert Valley)

4. Norwalk (Suburban)

5. Kennedy-OC (Empire) At-Large)

6. Arcadia (Pacific) At-Large

7. Northview (Valle Vista)

8. Hillcrest (River Valley)

9. El Segundo (Pioneer) At-Large

10. Moreno Valley (Inland Valley) At-Large

11. Salesian (Del Rey)

12. Harvard-Westlake (Del Rey) At-Large

13. Riverside Poly (Inland Valley)

14. Lakewood (Moore)

15. AB Miller (Mountain Valley)

16. Vista Del Lago (Inland Valley)

Some great sectional match-ups right down middle of this bracket. Norwalk-Riverside Poly at 4/13, Kennedy vs. Harvard-Westlake paired at 5/12, Northview-Moreno Valley on the 7/10 line, and Hillcrest-El Segundo at 8/9. Five Inland teams in this group,

DIVISION 10

1. La Quinta (Desert Empire) At-Large

2. Torrance (Pioneer) At-Large

3. Royal (Canyon) At-Large

4. Grand Terrace (San Andreas) At-Large

5. Palmdale (Golden)

6. Garden Grove (Big 4)

7. Colony (Citrus 4)

8. Nordhoff (Citrus Coast)

9. Baldwin Park (Mt Baldy 4)

10. Covina (Sierra)

11. Hueneme (Citrus Coast)

12. Schurr (Almont)

13. South Torrance (Pioneer) At-Large

14. LB Jordan (Moore) At-Large

15. Granite Hills (Desert Sky)

16. West Torrance (Pioneer)

Some great regional potential in D10. Three Torrance teams out of the Pioneer, with Jordan, out of Long Beach, and throw in Garden Grove & Baldwin Park, for good measure. Grand Terrace and Colony rep the IE in pretty good seeding. That 1st Round 7/10 pairing between Covina and Colony should draw some interest.

DIVISION 9

1. Laguna Beach (Pac 4)

2. Peninsula (Bay)

3. Ontario Christian (Ambassador)

4. Oak Park (Canyon) At-Large

5. Katella (Big 4)

6. Thousand Oaks (Canyon) At Large

7. Cathedral City (Desert Valley)

8. Claremont (San Antonio)

9. Arroyo (Mission Valley)

10. Eisenhower (San Andreas)

11. Highland (Golden)

12. St. Anthony (Del Rey)

13. Corona (Big VIII) At-Large

14. West Covina (San Antonio)

15. Fillmore (Citrus Coast) At-Large

16. Laguna Hills (Pacific Hills) At-Large

Intra-City rivalry match-up in 1st Round between Laguna Beach and Laguna Hills, kicks off Division 9. Corona in as an At-Large out of Big VIII, gets paired with Oak Park in 4/13 match. Potential 5/12 regional pairing between St. Anthony and Katella.

DIVISION 8

1. Xavier Prep (Desert Empire)

2. Valley Christian (Olympic)

3. Temescal Canyon (Ivy)

4. Pacifica (Empire)

5. Orange Vista (Sunbelt) At-Large

6. California (Del Rio) At-Large

7. Rancho Mirage (Desert Empire)

8. Portola (Pacific Hills) At-Large

9. Sunny Hills (Freeway) At-Large

10. Rio Hondo Prep (Gold Coast) At-Large

11. Ventura (Pacific View)

12. Paraclete (Gold Coast) At-Large

13. Brea-Olinda (North Hills)

14. Santa Ynez (Pacific View) At-Large

15. Chino (Sierra)

16. Western-OC (Orange)

Near-missed in first seven divisions, kind of catch-up in D8 with heavy presence of at-large teams. Orange Vista and Temescal Canyon are Inland teams poised to make runs, in what looks to be a wide-open division. Pacifica vs. Brea-Olinda at 4/13 is intriguing 1st Round pairing

DIVISION 7

1. Pius X (Camino Real)

2. Pasadena (Pacific)

3. Ramona (River Valley)

4. Troy (Freeway)

5. Buena (Pacific View)

6. Elsinore (Ivy)

7. Shadow Hills (Desert Empire)

8. Golden Valley (Foothill)

9. Aquinas (Ambassador)

10. Notre Vista (River Valley)

11. San Dimas (Valle Vista)

12. Palm Springs (Desert Empire) At-Large

13. Serrano (Mojave River)

14. Silverado (Desert Sky)

15. El Dorado (North Hills)

16. Aliso Niguel (Sea View) At-Large

Heavy Inland Empire presence in D7. Ramona, Elsinore and NoVi all on one side of the bracket, with Aquinas lined up for a potential 2nd Round show-down with top seed Pius X. Shadow Hills-Norte Vista at 7/10 and Elsinore-San Dimas at 6/11, some intriguing first round pairings.

DIVISION 6

1. North Torrance (Pioneer)

2. Westlake (Marmonte)

3. Millikan (Moore)

4. Mayfair (Suburban)

5. Charter Oak (Mountain West) At-Large

6. Dana Hills (Pacific Hills)

7. Capo Valley (Sea View) At-Large

8. Agoura (Canyon)

9. San Bernardino (Mountain Valley)

10. Huntington Beach (Sunset) At-Large

11. Alta Loma (Mountain West)

12. John Muir (Pacific)

13. Leuzinger (Ocean)

14. Campbell Hall (Gold Coast)

15. Santa Barbara (Channel)

16. Pacifia-Oxnard (Channel)

Some nice potential regional match-ups in D6. Mayfair and Leuzinger, in the 4/13 match-up, great OC match-up with 7/10 pairing of Capo Valley and Huntington Beach, along with Charter Oak-Muir on the 5/12 line. Three of top four seeds fairly close in proximity, could pump things up if bracket goes chalk to the Semi Finals,

DIVISION 5

1. Beaumont (Citrus Belt)

2. St. Paul (Angelus)

3. Monrovia (Rio Hondo)

4. Camarillo (Camino)

5. Summit (San Andreas)

6. St Genevieve (Camino Real)

7. Irvine (Pacific Hills)

8. Oak Hills (Mojave River)

9. Santa Ana (Orange Coast)

10. Palm Desert (Desert Empire) At-Large

11. Temecula Valley (Southwestern) At-Large

12. El Rancho (Del Rio)

13. Yucaipa (Citrus Belt)

14. Culver City (Bay)

15. Dominguez (San Gabriel)

16. La Habra (Freeway)

Jeff Steinberg’s Beaumont squad secures the top spot this week in D5, which is pretty regionally balanced. OC, Inland Empire, Desert and Valley all represented. Some potentially good bus trips in this bracket. Yucaipa would head to Camarillo for the 4/13 match-up, while El Rancho would get a trip to Fontana, for their potential 5/12 pairing vs. Summit. Palm Desert would head to Irvine, while Temecula Valley could head to the San Fernando Valley to take on St. Gen.

DIVISION 4

1. Cypress (Empire)

2. St. Francis (Angelus)

3. Rio Mesa (Channel)

4. Orange (Orange Coast)

5. Bonita (Mountain West)

6. Jurupa Hills (Sunkist)

7. San Jacinto (Mountain Pass)

8. Palos Verdes (Bay)

9. Chaparral (Southwestern)

10. John W. North (Sunbelt)

11. El Modena (Crestview) At-Large

12. Chino Hills (Baseline) At-Large

13. Trabuco Hills (Sea View)

14. La Serna (Del Rio)

15. Tustin (Empire)

16. El Toro (Sea View)

Heavy OC presence in D4. How about Trabuco Hills looking to upset Orange in 4/13 match-up? Bonita and Chino Hills at the 5/12 would be fun regional match-up, as would the 7/10 line between couple of solid Inland Empire teams, San Jacinto & John W. North. 8/9 pairing of Palos Verdes & Chaparral, would see winner likely taking on top-seed Cypress.

DIVISION 3

1. Foothill (Crestview)

2. Yorba Linda (Crestview)

3. Bishop Diego (Camino)

4. Chaminade (Mission) At-Large

5. Loyola (Angelus) At-Large

6. Citrus Valley (Citrus Belt) At-Large

7. Etiwanda (Baseline)

8. Ayala (Mountain West) At-Large

9. Downey (San Gabriel)

10. Saugus (Foothill)

11. Upland (Baseline)

12. LB Poly (Moore)

13. West Ranch (Foothill)

14. Lawndale (Pioneer)

15. Roosevelt (Big VIII)

16. Valencia (Foothill) At-Large

Potential match-ups in the bracket include West Hills-Santa Clarita 4/13 clash between Chaminade and West Ranch. Multiple berths out of Crestview, Baseline and Foothill leagues. Upland, from the baseline, paired against Citrus Valley in the 6/11 match, while Ayala-Downey, match in the 8/9. Potential showdown between Loyola and LB Poly on the 5/12 line, re-match of 2000 & 2003 CIF D1 Finals.

DIVISION 2

1. Vista Murrieta (Southwestern)

2. Alemany (Mission)

3. Edison (Sunset)

4. St Bonaventure (Marmonte)

5. Bishop Amat (Mission)

6. Warren (San Gabriel)

7. Inglewood (Ocean)

8. Corona Del Mar (Sunset)

9. Cajon (Citrus Belt)

10. San Clemente (South Coast)

11. Serra-Gardena (Mission)

12. Villa Park (Crestview) At-Large

13. Simi Valley (Canyon)

14. Murrieta Valley (Southwestern)

15. Apple Valley (Mojave River)

16. Glendora (Citrus 4)

Some intrigue in D2, include potential 8/9 match-up between OC and the IE, with Corona Del Mar and Cajon, as well as a 3/14 pairing of Edison and Murrieta Valley. Nice 6/11 regional match-up between Warren and Serra, schools are about 12 miles, or so, from each other. Also, a Valley vs. Ventura pairing at 4/13, between Simi Valley and St. Bonaventure.

OPEN DIVISION

1. Mater Dei (Trinity)

2. Servite (Trinity)

3. St. John Bosco (Trinity)

4. Centennial (Big VIII)

5. Mission Viejo (South Coast)

6. Sierra Canyon (Gold Coast)

7. Norco (Big VIII)

8. Los Alamitos (Sunset)

9. Santa Margarita (Trinity) At-Large

10. Orange Lutheran (Trinity) At-Large

Could be some movement in rankings this week, as Centennial plays Norco, in the Big VIII. These look like the ten teams in this Division, but some gerrymandering could occur, in terms of seeding. Servite and St. John Bosco meet in the Trinity finale on October 29th. Los Al solidified their spot by toppling Edison last Thursday, 35-28. Mission Viejo opens league play this week against Tesoro. Sierra Canyon continues their quirky schedule, traveling to Arizona this week.

LAST FIVE TEAMS IN: Colton, Lakeside, Cantwell-Sacred Heart, Knight, La Cañada.

FIRST FIVE TEAMS OUT: Capo Valley Christian (Freelance), San Marino (Rio Hondo), Calvary Chapel (Orange Coast), Barstow (Desert Sky); Lancaster (Golden);