CIF Projections

Cal Preps Rankings 10/2/2021

League play is upon us in the Southern Section, and as the CIF recently announced, in their playoff bulletin, divisions are be determined at the conclusion of the regular season, based on Cal Preps rankings. So, we’re gonna have a little fun. Each week, I’ll cull through the rankings, and project the field, from Open Division (Division 1) through Division 14.

Aside from using Cal Preps, these projections will be largely unscientific. We’ll just take the rankings as posted, and break it out. Think of it as a straw-poll for the CIF playoffs. We’re not making predictions, but are more interested in how teams progress from week-to-week. Will some teams in Division 6 end up in Division 4? Or might a team in the Division 9 projection this week, end up in Division 11 or 12? Could a team on the bubble, that’s not even in the current projection, get on a run, and move into the field? These are some of the questions we’ll examine.

To give you an idea, let’s take this week’s rankings and project the Open Division.

The above diagram (from the Southern Section Playoff Bulletin) shows how the Open Division would be broken out. Here are the current rankings from CalPreps.

Based on the above, Mater Dei, Servite, and St.John Bosco would all be Automatic Qualifiers (AQ) from the Trinity League, Corona Centennial and Norco would be AQs out of the Big VIII, same with Mission Viejo out of the South Coast, Sierra Canyon out of the Gold Coast, and Los Alamitos out of the Sunset. Where it gets interesting is for that 10th slot. Would Alemany be the choice out of the Mission, or would they get bumped down to the #1 seed for D2, with Orange Lutheran getting at At-Large Spot, out of the Trinity, along with Santa Margarita?

I’m going to go ahead and say the CIF would opt for O Lu in the Open Division over Alemany. Of course, this is a mid-season projection. A lot of football to be played, but right now, on October 4th, our open division projection would look like this:

1. Mater Dei

2. Servite

3. St. John Bosco

4. Centennial (Corona)

5. Mission Viejo

6. Sierra Canyon

7. Norco

8. Los Alamitos

9. Santa Margarita (At-Large)

10. Orange Lutheran (At-Large)

So, in our projection, all the open division teams would be AQs, except for Santa Margarita and Orange Lutheran, out of the Trinity, giving them five teams in the Top Ten. Alemany gets bumped down to Division 2. Keep in mind, we’re doing a ten-team projection. The committee could decide to only have eight teams.

Based on what’s been published in the Playoff Bulletin, looks like most leagues will get three (3) AQs into the playoffs, with smaller leagues getting two (2) and larger leagues getting up to four (4).

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Editor’s Note: Because I cover the Inland Empire, at the end of each projection, will offer some perspective on any Inland teams and their potential opponents.

DIVISION 2

1. Alemany

2. Vista Murrieta

3. Edison

4. Bishop Amat

5. St. Bonaventure

6. Warren

7. Inglewood

8. Corona Del Mar

9. Cajon

10. J Serra

11. San Clemente

12. Villa Park

13. Etiwanda

14. Apple Valley

15. Chaminade

16. Simi Valley

INLAND PERSPECTIVE

Vista Murrieta (5-1, Southwestern) looking at first-round match-up against Chaminade (4-1, Mission), while Cajon (6-0, Citrus Belt) would be in an 8/9 match-up against Corona Del Mar (5-1, Sunset), while Etiwanda (6-0 Baseline) would draw traditional power, Bishop Amat (4-2, Mission).

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DIVISION 3

1. Foothill

2. Murrieta Valley

3. Loyola

4. Bishop Diego

5. Rancho Cucamonga

6. Yorba Linda

7. Serra (Gardena)

8. Glendora

9. Citrus Valley

10. Damien

11. Saugus

12. Ayala

13. Downey

14. LB Poly

15. Upland

16. Jurupa Hills

INLAND PERSPECTIVE

Murrieta Valley (3-3, Southwestern) would take on Upland (4-3, Baseline) in a first round match-up, and Rancho Cucamonga (3-3, Baseline) would take the trip to Chino, to square off against Ayala (6-1, Mountain West). Citrus Valley (4-2, Citrus Belt) would get a first-round date with Glendora (7-0, Citrus 4), while Jurupa Hills (5-1, Sunkist) would take on top-seeded Foothill (6-0, Crestview) in a first-round game. Also intriguing in this projection, would be potential game between Long Beach Poly (3-3, Moore) & Loyola (5-2, Angelus), who played against each other, for Division 1 CIF Titles in 2000 and 2003.

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DIVISION 4

1. Lawndale

2. Orange

3. West Ranch

4. Oaks Christian

5. Valencia

6. St. Francis

7. Rio Mesa

8. Chaparral

9. Bonita

10. Tustin

11. John W. North

12. La Serna

13. Monrovia

14. Roosevelt

15. El Toro

16. St. Genevieve

INLAND PERSPECTIVE

John W. North (6-0, Sunbelt) looking at first-rounder against St. Francis (4-1, Angelus), Chaparral (3-3, Southwestern) would match up against Bonita (6-1, Mountain West) and Roosevelt (4-2, Big VIII) lines up against three-seed West Ranch (5-1, Foothill).

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DIVISION 5

1. Cypress

2. San Jacinto

3. Trabuco Hills

4. Palos Verdes

5. Capistrano Valley

6. Oak Hills

7. El Modena

8. Notre Dame (Sherman Oaks)

9. San Juan Hills

10. Yucaipa

11. Irvine

12. Chino Hills

13. Beaumont

14. St. Paul

15. Tesoro

16. Temecula Valley

INLAND PERSPECTIVE

San Jacinto (5-1, Mountain Pass), with potential first round match-up against Tesoro (2-4, South Coast), while Yucaipa (6-0, Citrus Belt), would line up against El Modena (5-1, Crestview). Beaumont (5-1, Citrus Belt) looking at date with Palos Verdes (1-4, Bay), while Temecula Valley (5-1, Southwestern) takes on top seed Cypress (4-2, Empire).

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DIVISION 6

1. Alta Loma

2. Dominguez

3. Santa Ana

4. Culver City

5. El Rancho

6. La Habra

7. Camarillo

8. Santa Barbara

9. North (Torrance)

10. Shadow Hills

11. Palm Springs

12. Palm Desert

13. Charter Oak

14. Dana Hills

15. Westlake

16. La Mirada

INLAND PERSPECTIVE

The Inland teams in this projection would be Shadow Hills (6-0, Desert Empire), who’d have a showdown against Camarillo, Palm Springs (4-1, Desert Empire) with La Habra, Palm Desert (4-2, Desert Empire) taking on El Rancho.

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DIVISION 7

1. Great Oak

2. Summit

3. Pasadena

4. LB Millikan

5. Leuzinger

6. Huntington Beach

7. Agoura

8. Mira Costa

9. Golden Valley

10. Aquinas

11. Mayfair

12. Ramona

13. Pius X

14. Crespi

15. Elsinore

16. Campbell Hall

INLAND PERSPECTIVE

Great Oak (3-3, Southwestern) as top seed, in this projection, would be matched against Campbell Hall (7-0, Gold Coast), while Summit (4-2, San Andreas) would get fellow Inland foe, Elsinore (4-2, Ivy). Aquinas (3-3, Ambassador) would draw Agoura (5-1, Canyon), while Ramona (6-0, River Valley) would take on Leuzinger (3-3, Ocean).

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DIVISION 8

1. Serrano

2. Newport Harbor

3. San Dimas

4. Notre Vista

5. Muir (Pasadena)

6. Pacifica (OC)

7. Paraclete

8. Rio Hondo

9. Silverado

10. Brea Olinda

11. Buena

12. Aliso Niguel

13. Sunny Hills

14. Troy

15. Portola

16. El Dorado

INLAND PERSPECTIVE

Notre Vista (5-0, River Valley) would be looking at opening-round match-up against Sunny Hills (3-3, Freeway).

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DIVISION 9

1. Pacifica (Ventura)

2. Orange Vista

3. California

4. Santa Ynez

5. Oxnard

6. Rancho Verde

7. Temescal Canyon

8. Ventura

9. ML King (Riverside)

10. Oak Park

11. Heritage

12. LA Cathedral

13. Thousand Oaks

14. La Quinta

15. Village Christian

16. Hart

INLAND PERSPECTIVE

Orange Vista (3-3, Sunbelt), would host Village Christian (5-0, Olympic) while Rancho Verde (1-4, Ivy) is projected to match up with league foe, Heritage (2-4, Ivy). Temescal Canyon (4-2, Ivy) would take on Oak Park (4-3, Canyon) while ML King (2-3, Big VIII), would match-up with Ventura (3-2, Pacific View).

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DIVISION 10

1. Xavier Prep

2. Lompoc

3. Laguna Beach

4. Santiago

5. Peninsula

6. Claremont

7. Valley Christian

8. Western (OC)

9. Eisenhower

10. Arroyo

11. Katella

12. St Anthony

13. Chino

14. Fillmore

15. Paramount

16. Highland

INLAND PERSPECTIVE

Santiago (1-5) becomes fifth Big VIII team in the projection, and would match up against Chino (4-2, Sierra), while Eisenhower (3-2, San Andreas), would take on Western (3-2, Orange). Top seed would be Xavier Prep (3-2-1, Desert Empire).

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DIVISION 11

1. Redlands East Valley

2. West Covina

3. Hueneme

4. St. Margaret’s

5. Cathedral City

6. Coachella Valley

7. Calabasas

8. Newbury Park

9. Laguna Hills

10. Burroughs

11. South (Torrance)

12. Canyon (Canyon Country)

13. Corona

14. Colony

15. Sonora

16. Los Altos

INLAND PERSPECTIVE

Redlands East Valley (2-4, Citrus Belt) matches with Los Altos (1-6, Valle Vista), while Cathedral City (4-2, Desert Valley), would take on Canyon (2-3, Foothill). Corona (3-2) would be 6th Big VIII team in the field against St. Margaret’s (2-4, Freelance), and Colony (1-5, Citrus 4) lines up with upward-trending Hueneme (4-2, Citrus Coast).

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DIVISION 12

1. Torrance

2. Arcadia

3. Royal

4. La Cañada

5. Covina

6. Baldwin Park

7. Garden Grove

8. Ontario Christian

9. Murrieta Mesa

10. Harvard-Westlake

11. Rancho Mirage

12. Palmdale

13. Brentwood

14. Nordhoff

15. Segerstrom

16. Schurr

INLAND PERSPECTIVE

Ontario Christian (3-1-1, Ambassador) would get an Inland foe, in Murrieta Mesa (0-5, Southwestern), and Rancho Mirage (4-1, Desert Empire) would find themselves in a first-round match-up against Baldwin Park (6-0, Mount Baldy 4).

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DIVISION 13

1. Norwalk

2. Los Osos

3. Esperanza

4. Granite Hills

5. Grand Terrace

6. LB Jordan

7. Canyon (OC)

8. Northview

9. Kaiser

10. Moorpark

11. Moreno Valley

12. El Segundo

13. Diamond Ranch

14. Colton

15. Kennedy (OC)

16. Big Bear

INLAND PERSPECTIVE

Los Osos (0-5, Citrus 4) would take on Kennedy (3-2, Empire) while Grand Terrace (3-3, San Andreas) matches with El Segundo (5-1, Pioneer). Kaiser (1-4, Sunkist) would be in an 8/9 game against Northview (2-5, Valle Vista), Colton (4-1, San Andreas) lines up against 2019 D13 Champion, Esperanza (3-3, North Hills). Moreno Valley (2-1, Inland Valley) would draw Long Beach Jordan (3-4, Moore).

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DIVISION 14

1. Knight

2. Redondo

3. Victor Valley

4. Compton

5. Marina

6. Hillcrest

7. Redlands

8. West (Torrance)

9. Northwood

10. Whittier

11. Lakewood

12. San Gabriel

13. Sultana

14. Burbank

15. Dos Pueblos

16. Calvary Chapel

INLAND PERSPECTIVE

Hillcrest (3-3, River Valley) would match with Lakewood (2-4, Moore), while Redlands (1-5, Citrus Belt) lines up with Whittier (2-4, Del Rio).

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LAST TEN TEAMS OUT

1. Lakeside (4-2, Inland Valley) Sharp Upward

2. Quartz Hill (2-2, Golden) Upward

3. Hemet (4-2, Sunbelt) Neutral

4. Capo Valley Christian (6-1, Freelance) Neutral

5. AB Miller (3-2, Mountain Valley) Slight Upward

6. Valencia (OC) (1-5, Empire) Sharp Upward

7. Riverside Poly (3-3, Inland Valley) Slight Downward

8. Vista Del Lago (3-3, Inland Valley) Slight Upward

9. Pasadena Poly (3-2, Rio Hondo) Slight Upward

10. Fullerton (1-5, Freeway) Slight Upward

INLAND PERSPECTIVE

Right now, all of these teams would be out of the CIF Playoffs, but there’s a month of football to go.

Lakeside was the last team out of the projection, but are trending upwards, as they have games remaining with both Vista Del Lago and Riverside Poly. AB Miller and Vista Del Lago are also both teams that are trending up. Hemet trending Neutral right now, with games remaining against JW North, Orange Vista and Elsinore. Riverside Poly trending slightly down, so they have work to do, with games remaining against Vista Del Lago, Lakeside, and Moreno Valley.