CIF Playoff Projections
Discover more from The Broadcaster's Tale
CIF Playoff Projections
October 14th, 2022
Believe it or not, we’re into Week 8, so just two more weeks to go, until the actual bracket is released. The field is starting to take shape, as four-team pods have started playing league games. We’re back to break it down for you, 176 Automatic Qualifiers (AQ) and 40 At-Large Teams, for a total of 216. Division 1 gets an eight-team bracket, while Division 2 through Division 14 each line up with sixteen teams. Leagues with six through eight teams get three auto bids for 1st, 2nd and 3rd place. The nine-team Channel League gets four bids, while four and five-team leagues receive just two (2) AQs.
So, to go over it again, our projections are based on the Cal Preps ratings for the 372 teams in the Southern Section, and we set it up according to the parameters laid out in the CIF Playoff Bulletin. We generally follow the guideline of At-Large teams having to be over .500, but particularly at the top of the bracket, we’ll give some weight to the overall Cal Preps ratings, as well.
In projecting AQs, we do our best to try and be accurate, even though the teams haven’t played all the league games yet. In cases where there is a tie, we’ll do our best to determine the team, based on rankings and head-to-head. For example, this week, the Ivy League has a four-way tie for first place, and gets three AQ bids. Elsinore beat Orange Vista, Orange Vista beat Rancho Verde, and Rancho Verde beat Elsinore. All those teams are 2-1. Temescal Canyon also is 2-1, but their wins have come against JW North and Heritage, so they’ll have to fend for themselves in the land of the At-Large bids.
Also, Saturday’s Skyline game between Notre Dame and Fontana was postponed until Monday. Fontana is in the running for the third AQ in that league, with Bloomington and Arroyo Valley. The Steelers lone league win is against Bloomington, and Bloomington defeated Arroyo Valley, so we projected Fontana as the 3rd Place Team in the Skyline, even though they haven’t played their third league game, on those facts.
One note from last week. In our Week 7 Projection, West Valley was the last team in, with a Cal Preps rating of -11.5. The last team into the projection this week, has a Cal Preps rating of -2.3, which shows you how much things can change in a week. With more league games being played, the AQ picture comes into focus a little clearer.
As we head into Week 9, here are the most recent CIF Playoff Division Projections, based on Cal Preps ratings, through the games of October 15, 2022.
EDITOR’S NOTE: The game between Notre Dame-Riverside and Fontana, scheduled for Saturday 10/15, is now set to be played on Monday 10/17, so that result is not yet calculated into the ratings.
DIVISION 1
Mater Dei - Trinity
St John Bosco - Trinity
Centennial - Big West Upper
Long Beach Poly - Moore
Mission Viejo - South Coast
Los Alamitos - Sunset
Chaminade - Mission
Edison - Sunset
Los Al win over Edison gives the Griffins the edge in the ratings, but Sunset still can boast two teams in the top playoff division, along with Trinity. Also, breakdown includes five public schools, among the top eight, which includes four OC Schools.
DIVISION 2
Orange Lutheran - Trinity
Santa Margarita - Trinity (At-Large)
Inglewood - Ocean
Serra - Mission (At-Large)
Bishop Amat - Mission (At-Large)
J Serra - Trinity (At-Large)
Oak Hills - Mojave River
Warren - Gateway
Oaks Christian - Marmonte
Norco - Big West Upper
Rancho Cucamonga - Baseline
Citrus Valley - Citrus Belt
Apple Valley - Mojave River
Cajon - Citrus Belt
La Serna - Del Rio
Yorba Linda - Crestview
Have chosen to include J Serra in the projection, despite the fact that they’re under .500. Guessing they’ll split their final two games (Servite & O Lu) and end up 4-6. With a current Cal Preps rating of 53.7, that probably gets them in. If they lose both, however, they could get left out. Expecting some movement with Baseline League teams as well.
DIVISION 3
Sierra Canyon - Mission
West Ranch - Foothill
El Modena - North Hills
Murrieta Valley - Big West Upper (At Large)
St Bonaventure - Marmonte
Corona Del Mar - Sunset
San Clemente - South Coast (At-Large)
Upland - Baseline (At-Large)
Pasadena - Pacific Upper
Damien - Baseline
Bishop Diego - Marmonte
Tesoro - South Coast
Thousand Oaks - Canyon
Charter Oak - Mountain West
Ayala - Mountain West (At-Large)
Vista Murrieta - Big West Upper (At-Large)
DIVISION 4
Pius X - Del Rey
Palos Verdes - Bay
Cypress - Empire
Newport Harbor - Sunset (At-Large)
Chaparral - Big West Upper
Saugus - Foothill
Cathedral - Angelus
Valencia - Foothill (At-Large)
Santa Barbara - Channel
Millikan - Moore
Newbury Park - Canyon
Leuzinger - Ocean
Pacifica (Oxnard) - Channel
Rio Mesa - Channel
Notre Dame SO - Mission
Roosevelt - Big West Upper (At Large)
SERVITE (1-7) FALLS WITH RANGE BUT IS UNDER .500;
DIVISION 5
Highland - Golden
Beaumont - Citrus Belt
Camarillo - Canyon
Mira Costa - Bay
Downey - Gateway
Silverado - Desert Sky
Orange Vista - Ivy
Calabasas - Marmonte (At-Large)
St. Francis - Angelus
Aquinas - Ironwood
Temecula Valley - Big West Lower
Colony - Citrus 4
Simi Valley - Marmonte (At-Large)
El Dorado - North Hills (At-Large)
Great Oak - Big West Lower
Loyola - Angelus
Roosevelt and Highland had the identical Cal Preps ranking, but on the strength of Highland being an AQ and potential league champion, they’ll be the top-seed in D5, while Roosevelt will be the 16 seed in D4. Etiwanda is real close out of the Baseline, which as a five-team league, only gets two auto bids. Their season finale against Damien (10/28) could very well be for the final AQ bid out of the league.
ALEMANY (2-5); VILLA PARK (3-5); ETIWANDA (4-5) All Within Range, But Under .500;
DIVISION 6
Canyon - North Hills
Culver City - Bay
Yucaipa - Citrus Belt (At-Large)
Trabuco Hills - Sea View
Huntington Beach - Sunset (At-Large)
San Juan Hills - Sea View
Oak Park - Canyon (At-Large)
Murrieta Mesa - Big West Lower
Orange - Orange Coast
Jurupa Hills - Sunkist
San Jacinto - Mountain Psss
Serrano - Mojave River (At-Large)
Palm Springs - Desert Empire
Moorpark - Canyon
La Habra - Freeway
North Torrance - Pioneer
San Juan Hills has just one win on the season, but is an AQ out of a four-team pod, with a high enough Cal Preps ranking to be in D6. Their overall record would probably not allow them to secure at At-Large bid, depending on how divisions broke down.
CHINO HILLS (4-5) WITHIN RANGE, BUT UNDER .500;
DIVISION 7
Mayfair - Gateway
Ramona - River Valley
Northview - Valle Vista
Lawndale - Pioneer
La Mirada - Gateway (At-Large)
Capo Valley - South Coast (At-Large)
ML King - Big West Lower (At-Large)
Golden Valley - Foothill
Summit - Sunkist
Bonita - Mountain West
Buena - Channel
Western (OC) - Orange
Eisenhower - Sunkist (At-Large)
Palm Desert - Desert Empire
Fountain Valley - Sunset (At-Large)
Monrovia - Rio Hondo
WESTLAKE (2-6) FALLS WITHIN RANGE, BUT UNDER .500;
DIVISION 8
Foothill - Crestview
Ontario Christian - Ironwood
Claremont - San Antonio
Crean Lutheran - Empire
Oxnard - Channel (At-Large)
Elsinore - Ivy
Redondo - Bay (At-Large)
Paloma Valley - Sunbelt
Grand Terrace - San Andreas
Brentwood - Gold Coast
Laguna Hills - Pacific Hills (At-Large)
Troy - Freeway
Aliso Nigel - Sea View (At-Large)
Hemet - Inland Valley
San Dimas - Valle Vista
Vista Del Lago - Sunbelt (At-Large)
HART (2-6); HESPERIA (3-5); ST PAUL (3-5); GLENDORA (2-6) ALL FALL WITHIN RANGE, BUT CURRENTLY UNDER .500;
DIVISION 9
Sultana - Mojave River
Norte Vista - River Valley
Village Christian - Ironwood
Ventura - Channel (At-Large)
Harvard Westlake - Del Rey (At-Large)
Tahquitz - Mountain Pass
Rancho Verde - Ivy
Norwalk - Mid-Cities
Liberty - Mountain Pass
Coachella Valley - Desert Valley
Jordan - Moore (At-Large)
West Torrance - Pioneer
Kaiser - Sunkist (At-Large)
Burroughs - Pacific Upper
Northwood - Pacific Hills
Palmdale - Golden
LAKEWOOD (3-5); EL TORO (2-6); JW NORTH (2-6); ROYAL (4-5) ALL WITH RANGE, BUT UNDER .500;
DIVISION 10
Quartz Hill - Golden
Dana Hills - Pacific Hills
Peninsula - Bay (At-Large)
Santa Ana - Orange Coast
Sunny Hills - Freeway
Laguna Hills - Pacific 4
John Muir - Pacific Upper
Diamond Bar - Hacienda
Westminster - Pacific 4
La Salle - Del Rey
Hillcrest - River Valley
Garden Grove - Big 4
South Pasadena - Rio Hondo
West Covina - San Antonio
Alta Loma - Mountain West (At-Large)
Chaffey - San Antonio (At-Large)
TEMESCAL CANYON (3-5) WITHIN RANGE, BUT UNDER .500;
DIVISION 11
La Quinta - Desert Empire
Granite Hills - Desert Sky (At-Large)
Los Osos - Citrus 4
Moreno Valley - Inland Valley (At-Large)
Cantwell-Sacred Heart - Camino Real
El Rancho - Del Rio
Riverside Poly - Sunbelt
Shadow Hills - Desert Empire (At-Large)
Katella - Big 4
Rio Hondo Prep - Gold Coast
Adelanto - Desert Sky
Baldwin Park - Mt. Baldy 4
Capo Valley Christian - Mesquite
Tustin - Empire
Woodbridge - Pacific Valley
Salesian - Camino Real
Shadow Hills is the final At-Large team in the projection. The final three divisions will be made up of all AQ teams.
SANTIAGO (1-7) FALLS WITHIN RANGE, BUT IS UNDER .500;
DIVISION 12
Bellflower - Mid-Cities
Fillmore - Citrus Coast
Covina - Sierra
Bell Gardens - Almont
Rancho Christian - Inland Valley
Chino - Sierra
Long Beach Wilson - Moore
Rim of the World - San Andreas
St. Margaret's - Orange Coast
Schurr - Almont
Hueneme - Citrus Coast
Montebello - Almont
Yucca Valley - Desert Valley
Arroyo - Mission Valley
Indio - Desert Valley
Bishop Montgomery - Camino Real
DIVISION 13
Maranatha - Cottonwood
Linfield Christian - Mesquite
Portola - Pacific Valley
Rialto - Skyline
San Bernardino - Mountain Valley
Santa Ana Valley - Orange
Montclair - Mt Baldy 4
San Marino - Rio Hondo
Rancho Alamitos - Garden Grove
Indian Springs - Mountain Valley
Santiago (OC) - Garden Grove
Los Amigos - Garden Grove
Azusa - Montview
Nogales - Hacienda
Colton - Skyline
Cerritos - 605 League
DIVISION 14
Arrowhead Christian - Mesquite
Santa Rosa Academy - Cottonwood
Rubidoux - Mountain Valley
Pioneer - 605 League
Rosemead - Mission Valley
El Monte - Mission Valley
Fontana - Skyline
Hawthorne - Ocean
Whittier Christian - Cottonwood
Anaheim - Orange
Temecula Prep - Manzanita
Silver Valley - Manzanita
Garey - Miramonte
Gladstone - Montview
Ganesha - Miramonte
St Jeanne Lestonnac - Manzanita
At-Large Berths
LAST FIVE IN
Shadow Hills - Desert Empire
Moreno Valley - Inland Valley
Granite Hills - Desert Sky
Chaffey - San Antonio
Alta Loma - Mountain West
LAST TEN OUT
Heritage Christian - Ironwood
Campbell Hall - Gold Coast
Patriot - River Valley
Irvine - Pacific Hills
Sonora - Freeway
Compton - Moore
La Canada - Rio Hondo
Barstow - Desert Sky
West Valley - Mountain Pass
Walnut - Hacienda
Campbell Hall’s season comes down to their Week 10 clash, against Rio Hondo Prep. If they finish off with a win, they’ll likely land one of the league’s AQ bids. Not as optimistic for Patriot, who were included in last week’s projection, could be on the outside looking in, after losing a Week 7 thriller against Hillcrest on a missed PAT. They hung tough against Norte Vista this week, but Special Teams turned out to be the difference. The Warriors wrap up against La Sierra and league-leading Ramona. They’d need to win both, and get some help from Arlington, who they’d need to defeat Hillcrest. Compton was in our projection last week as well, they finish up with LB Poly and Lakewood. Both teams are ahead of them in the Cal Preps ratings. West Valley was also in last week’s projection, but needs a win this week, against first-place San Jacinto, to keep their hopes of an AQ alive, even at 6-2 overall.