CIF Playoff Projections

October 14th, 2022

Believe it or not, we’re into Week 8, so just two more weeks to go, until the actual bracket is released. The field is starting to take shape, as four-team pods have started playing league games. We’re back to break it down for you, 176 Automatic Qualifiers (AQ) and 40 At-Large Teams, for a total of 216. Division 1 gets an eight-team bracket, while Division 2 through Division 14 each line up with sixteen teams. Leagues with six through eight teams get three auto bids for 1st, 2nd and 3rd place. The nine-team Channel League gets four bids, while four and five-team leagues receive just two (2) AQs.

So, to go over it again, our projections are based on the Cal Preps ratings for the 372 teams in the Southern Section, and we set it up according to the parameters laid out in the CIF Playoff Bulletin. We generally follow the guideline of At-Large teams having to be over .500, but particularly at the top of the bracket, we’ll give some weight to the overall Cal Preps ratings, as well.

In projecting AQs, we do our best to try and be accurate, even though the teams haven’t played all the league games yet. In cases where there is a tie, we’ll do our best to determine the team, based on rankings and head-to-head. For example, this week, the Ivy League has a four-way tie for first place, and gets three AQ bids. Elsinore beat Orange Vista, Orange Vista beat Rancho Verde, and Rancho Verde beat Elsinore. All those teams are 2-1. Temescal Canyon also is 2-1, but their wins have come against JW North and Heritage, so they’ll have to fend for themselves in the land of the At-Large bids.

Also, Saturday’s Skyline game between Notre Dame and Fontana was postponed until Monday. Fontana is in the running for the third AQ in that league, with Bloomington and Arroyo Valley. The Steelers lone league win is against Bloomington, and Bloomington defeated Arroyo Valley, so we projected Fontana as the 3rd Place Team in the Skyline, even though they haven’t played their third league game, on those facts.

One note from last week. In our Week 7 Projection, West Valley was the last team in, with a Cal Preps rating of -11.5. The last team into the projection this week, has a Cal Preps rating of -2.3, which shows you how much things can change in a week. With more league games being played, the AQ picture comes into focus a little clearer.

As we head into Week 9, here are the most recent CIF Playoff Division Projections, based on Cal Preps ratings, through the games of October 15, 2022.

EDITOR’S NOTE: The game between Notre Dame-Riverside and Fontana, scheduled for Saturday 10/15, is now set to be played on Monday 10/17, so that result is not yet calculated into the ratings.

DIVISION 1

1. Mater Dei - Trinity

2. St John Bosco - Trinity

3. Centennial - Big West Upper

4. Long Beach Poly - Moore

5. Mission Viejo - South Coast

6. Los Alamitos - Sunset

7. Chaminade - Mission

8. Edison - Sunset

Los Al win over Edison gives the Griffins the edge in the ratings, but Sunset still can boast two teams in the top playoff division, along with Trinity. Also, breakdown includes five public schools, among the top eight, which includes four OC Schools.

DIVISION 2

1. Orange Lutheran - Trinity

2. Santa Margarita - Trinity (At-Large)

3. Inglewood - Ocean

4. Serra - Mission (At-Large)

5. Bishop Amat - Mission (At-Large)

6. J Serra - Trinity (At-Large)

7. Oak Hills - Mojave River

8. Warren - Gateway

9. Oaks Christian - Marmonte

10. Norco - Big West Upper

11. Rancho Cucamonga - Baseline

12. Citrus Valley - Citrus Belt

13. Apple Valley - Mojave River

14. Cajon - Citrus Belt

15. La Serna - Del Rio

16. Yorba Linda - Crestview

Have chosen to include J Serra in the projection, despite the fact that they’re under .500. Guessing they’ll split their final two games (Servite & O Lu) and end up 4-6. With a current Cal Preps rating of 53.7, that probably gets them in. If they lose both, however, they could get left out. Expecting some movement with Baseline League teams as well.

DIVISION 3

1. Sierra Canyon - Mission

2. West Ranch - Foothill

3. El Modena - North Hills

4. Murrieta Valley - Big West Upper (At Large)

5. St Bonaventure - Marmonte

6. Corona Del Mar - Sunset

7. San Clemente - South Coast (At-Large)

8. Upland - Baseline (At-Large)

9. Pasadena - Pacific Upper

10. Damien - Baseline

11. Bishop Diego - Marmonte

12. Tesoro - South Coast

13. Thousand Oaks - Canyon

14. Charter Oak - Mountain West

15. Ayala - Mountain West (At-Large)

16. Vista Murrieta - Big West Upper (At-Large)

DIVISION 4

1. Pius X - Del Rey

2. Palos Verdes - Bay

3. Cypress - Empire

4. Newport Harbor - Sunset (At-Large)

5. Chaparral - Big West Upper

6. Saugus - Foothill

7. Cathedral - Angelus

8. Valencia - Foothill (At-Large)

9. Santa Barbara - Channel

10. Millikan - Moore

11. Newbury Park - Canyon

12. Leuzinger - Ocean

13. Pacifica (Oxnard) - Channel

14. Rio Mesa - Channel

15. Notre Dame SO - Mission

16. Roosevelt - Big West Upper (At Large)

SERVITE (1-7) FALLS WITH RANGE BUT IS UNDER .500;

DIVISION 5

1. Highland - Golden

2. Beaumont - Citrus Belt

3. Camarillo - Canyon

4. Mira Costa - Bay

5. Downey - Gateway

6. Silverado - Desert Sky

7. Orange Vista - Ivy

8. Calabasas - Marmonte (At-Large)

9. St. Francis - Angelus

10. Aquinas - Ironwood

11. Temecula Valley - Big West Lower

12. Colony - Citrus 4

13. Simi Valley - Marmonte (At-Large)

14. El Dorado - North Hills (At-Large)

15. Great Oak - Big West Lower

16. Loyola - Angelus

Roosevelt and Highland had the identical Cal Preps ranking, but on the strength of Highland being an AQ and potential league champion, they’ll be the top-seed in D5, while Roosevelt will be the 16 seed in D4. Etiwanda is real close out of the Baseline, which as a five-team league, only gets two auto bids. Their season finale against Damien (10/28) could very well be for the final AQ bid out of the league.

ALEMANY (2-5); VILLA PARK (3-5); ETIWANDA (4-5) All Within Range, But Under .500;

DIVISION 6

1. Canyon - North Hills

2. Culver City - Bay

3. Yucaipa - Citrus Belt (At-Large)

4. Trabuco Hills - Sea View

5. Huntington Beach - Sunset (At-Large)

6. San Juan Hills - Sea View

7. Oak Park - Canyon (At-Large)

8. Murrieta Mesa - Big West Lower

9. Orange - Orange Coast

10. Jurupa Hills - Sunkist

11. San Jacinto - Mountain Psss

12. Serrano - Mojave River (At-Large)

13. Palm Springs - Desert Empire

14. Moorpark - Canyon

15. La Habra - Freeway

16. North Torrance - Pioneer

San Juan Hills has just one win on the season, but is an AQ out of a four-team pod, with a high enough Cal Preps ranking to be in D6. Their overall record would probably not allow them to secure at At-Large bid, depending on how divisions broke down.

CHINO HILLS (4-5) WITHIN RANGE, BUT UNDER .500;

DIVISION 7

1. Mayfair - Gateway

2. Ramona - River Valley

3. Northview - Valle Vista

4. Lawndale - Pioneer

5. La Mirada - Gateway (At-Large)

6. Capo Valley - South Coast (At-Large)

7. ML King - Big West Lower (At-Large)

8. Golden Valley - Foothill

9. Summit - Sunkist

10. Bonita - Mountain West

11. Buena - Channel

12. Western (OC) - Orange

13. Eisenhower - Sunkist (At-Large)

14. Palm Desert - Desert Empire

15. Fountain Valley - Sunset (At-Large)

16. Monrovia - Rio Hondo

WESTLAKE (2-6) FALLS WITHIN RANGE, BUT UNDER .500;

DIVISION 8

1. Foothill - Crestview

2. Ontario Christian - Ironwood

3. Claremont - San Antonio

4. Crean Lutheran - Empire

5. Oxnard - Channel (At-Large)

6. Elsinore - Ivy

7. Redondo - Bay (At-Large)

8. Paloma Valley - Sunbelt

9. Grand Terrace - San Andreas

10. Brentwood - Gold Coast

11. Laguna Hills - Pacific Hills (At-Large)

12. Troy - Freeway

13. Aliso Nigel - Sea View (At-Large)

14. Hemet - Inland Valley

15. San Dimas - Valle Vista

16. Vista Del Lago - Sunbelt (At-Large)

HART (2-6); HESPERIA (3-5); ST PAUL (3-5); GLENDORA (2-6) ALL FALL WITHIN RANGE, BUT CURRENTLY UNDER .500;

DIVISION 9

1. Sultana - Mojave River

2. Norte Vista - River Valley

3. Village Christian - Ironwood

4. Ventura - Channel (At-Large)

5. Harvard Westlake - Del Rey (At-Large)

6. Tahquitz - Mountain Pass

7. Rancho Verde - Ivy

8. Norwalk - Mid-Cities

9. Liberty - Mountain Pass

10. Coachella Valley - Desert Valley

11. Jordan - Moore (At-Large)

12. West Torrance - Pioneer

13. Kaiser - Sunkist (At-Large)

14. Burroughs - Pacific Upper

15. Northwood - Pacific Hills

16. Palmdale - Golden

LAKEWOOD (3-5); EL TORO (2-6); JW NORTH (2-6); ROYAL (4-5) ALL WITH RANGE, BUT UNDER .500;

DIVISION 10

1. Quartz Hill - Golden

2. Dana Hills - Pacific Hills

3. Peninsula - Bay (At-Large)

4. Santa Ana - Orange Coast

5. Sunny Hills - Freeway

6. Laguna Hills - Pacific 4

7. John Muir - Pacific Upper

8. Diamond Bar - Hacienda

9. Westminster - Pacific 4

10. La Salle - Del Rey

11. Hillcrest - River Valley

12. Garden Grove - Big 4

13. South Pasadena - Rio Hondo

14. West Covina - San Antonio

15. Alta Loma - Mountain West (At-Large)

16. Chaffey - San Antonio (At-Large)

TEMESCAL CANYON (3-5) WITHIN RANGE, BUT UNDER .500;

DIVISION 11

1. La Quinta - Desert Empire

2. Granite Hills - Desert Sky (At-Large)

3. Los Osos - Citrus 4

4. Moreno Valley - Inland Valley (At-Large)

5. Cantwell-Sacred Heart - Camino Real

6. El Rancho - Del Rio

7. Riverside Poly - Sunbelt

8. Shadow Hills - Desert Empire (At-Large)

9. Katella - Big 4

10. Rio Hondo Prep - Gold Coast

11. Adelanto - Desert Sky

12. Baldwin Park - Mt. Baldy 4

13. Capo Valley Christian - Mesquite

14. Tustin - Empire

15. Woodbridge - Pacific Valley

16. Salesian - Camino Real

Shadow Hills is the final At-Large team in the projection. The final three divisions will be made up of all AQ teams.

SANTIAGO (1-7) FALLS WITHIN RANGE, BUT IS UNDER .500;

DIVISION 12

1. Bellflower - Mid-Cities

2. Fillmore - Citrus Coast

3. Covina - Sierra

4. Bell Gardens - Almont

5. Rancho Christian - Inland Valley

6. Chino - Sierra

7. Long Beach Wilson - Moore

8. Rim of the World - San Andreas

9. St. Margaret's - Orange Coast

10. Schurr - Almont

11. Hueneme - Citrus Coast

12. Montebello - Almont

13. Yucca Valley - Desert Valley

14. Arroyo - Mission Valley

15. Indio - Desert Valley

16. Bishop Montgomery - Camino Real

DIVISION 13

1. Maranatha - Cottonwood

2. Linfield Christian - Mesquite

3. Portola - Pacific Valley

4. Rialto - Skyline

5. San Bernardino - Mountain Valley

6. Santa Ana Valley - Orange

7. Montclair - Mt Baldy 4

8. San Marino - Rio Hondo

9. Rancho Alamitos - Garden Grove

10. Indian Springs - Mountain Valley

11. Santiago (OC) - Garden Grove

12. Los Amigos - Garden Grove

13. Azusa - Montview

14. Nogales - Hacienda

15. Colton - Skyline

16. Cerritos - 605 League

DIVISION 14

1. Arrowhead Christian - Mesquite

2. Santa Rosa Academy - Cottonwood

3. Rubidoux - Mountain Valley

4. Pioneer - 605 League

5. Rosemead - Mission Valley

6. El Monte - Mission Valley

7. Fontana - Skyline

8. Hawthorne - Ocean

9. Whittier Christian - Cottonwood

10. Anaheim - Orange

11. Temecula Prep - Manzanita

12. Silver Valley - Manzanita

13. Garey - Miramonte

14. Gladstone - Montview

15. Ganesha - Miramonte

16. St Jeanne Lestonnac - Manzanita

At-Large Berths

LAST FIVE IN

1. Shadow Hills - Desert Empire

2. Moreno Valley - Inland Valley

3. Granite Hills - Desert Sky

4. Chaffey - San Antonio

5. Alta Loma - Mountain West

LAST TEN OUT

1. Heritage Christian - Ironwood

2. Campbell Hall - Gold Coast

3. Patriot - River Valley

4. Irvine - Pacific Hills

5. Sonora - Freeway

6. Compton - Moore

7. La Canada - Rio Hondo

8. Barstow - Desert Sky

9. West Valley - Mountain Pass

10. Walnut - Hacienda

Campbell Hall’s season comes down to their Week 10 clash, against Rio Hondo Prep. If they finish off with a win, they’ll likely land one of the league’s AQ bids. Not as optimistic for Patriot, who were included in last week’s projection, could be on the outside looking in, after losing a Week 7 thriller against Hillcrest on a missed PAT. They hung tough against Norte Vista this week, but Special Teams turned out to be the difference. The Warriors wrap up against La Sierra and league-leading Ramona. They’d need to win both, and get some help from Arlington, who they’d need to defeat Hillcrest. Compton was in our projection last week as well, they finish up with LB Poly and Lakewood. Both teams are ahead of them in the Cal Preps ratings. West Valley was also in last week’s projection, but needs a win this week, against first-place San Jacinto, to keep their hopes of an AQ alive, even at 6-2 overall.