CIF Playoff Projections
October 7, 2022
Latest projections, after Week 7, brings the picture into some more focus. The real change will begin next week, when four-team pods start playing league games.
Again, if you're new to this, projections are based upon CalPreps rankings. We sort out AQ teams, and then identify At-Large possibilities, per CIF Playoff Bulletin:
Now, we know some teams under .500 will get bids, but I've tried to adhere to this conceit in our projections. When I don't, it'll be explained.
So, 176 AQ Teams, 40 At-Large Teams, placed over 14 Divisions. Here goes nothing.
DIVISION 1
Mater Dei - Trinity
St John Bosco - Trinity
Centennial - Big West Upper
Long Beach Poly - Moore
Mission Viejo - South Coast
Edison - Sunset
Chaminade - Mission
Los Alamitos - Sunset
Five of eight teams from public schools. Multiple bids to D1 out of both Trinity and Sunset.
DIVISION 2
Orange Lutheran - Trinity
Serra (Gardena) - Mission (At-Large)
Bishop Amat - Mission
Oak Hills - Mojave River
Santa Margarita - Trinity (At-Large)
J Serra - Trinity (At-Large)
Inglewood - Ocean
Citrus Valley - Citrus Belt
Warren - Gateway
Norco - Big West Upper
Oaks Christian - Marmonte
Apple Valley - Mojave River
Cajon - Citrus Belt
Rancho Cucamonga - Baseline
Murrieta Valley - Big West Upper
La Serna - Del Rio
Made an executive decision and included J Serra in the projection, as at At-Large, even though they are under .500. They're a Trinity League team, with a ranking above 50. Guessing that would get them into the field. Serra Gardena took a bump, having to forfeit a game against Notre Dame-Sherman Oaks, but again, their rating high enough to where they should warrant a bid. Some good potential public school match-ups in the middle of the bracket.
DIVISION 3
Yorba Linda - Crestview
West Ranch - Foothill
San Clemente - South Coast
St Bonaventure - Marmonte
Corona Del Mar - Sunset (At-Large)
Sierra Canyon - Mission (At-Large)
Ayala - Mountain West
El Modena - North Hills
Pasadena - Pacific Upper
Damien - Baseline
Leuzinger - Ocean
Upland - Baseline (At-Large)
Thousand Oaks - Canyon
Pacifica (Oxnard) - Channel
Bishop Diego - Marmonte (At-Large)
Pius X - Del Rey
Servite (Trinity) falls within range, but is under .500. I know that Sierra Canyon is also under .500, but see explanation from above, about J Serra. Applying same principle here. But that's the last exception in this projection. Slid Upland down, below Leuzinger, to avoid second-round match-up between Baseline schools. Now a hard-and-fast rule, but in the past, committee tries to avoid match-ups between league foes, until the semi-finals, if they can.
DIVISION 4
Cypress - Empire
Palos Verdes - Bay
Cathedral - Angeles
Tesoro - South Coast (At-large)
Millikan* - Moore
Vista Murrieta - Big West Upper (At-Large)
Saugus - Foothill
Newport Harbor - Sunset (At-Large)
Santa Barbara - Channel
Charter Oak - Mountain West
Newbury Park - Canyon
Valencia - Foothill (At-Large)
Highland - Golden
Roosevelt - Big West Upper (At-Large)
Beaumont - Citrus Belt (At-Large)
Downey - Gateway
Alemany (Mission) falls within range, but currently, overall record is under .500. I chose to include Millikan in the projection, after speaking with an individual with knowledge of their forfeit situation. They didn't seem to think it would affect their inclusion in the field. Going by past precendent, other teams who've had to forfeit games, due to technicalities, generally haven't been penalized, with regard to inclusion in the post-season. Also, none of the reports on the situation included any indication that the Rams would be prevented from participating.
DIVISION 5
Mira Costa - Bay
El Dorado - North Hills
St Francis - Angelus
Etiwanda - Baseline (At-Large)
Orange Vista - Ivy
Silverado - Desert Sky
Notre Dame (Sherman Oaks) - Mission
Rio Mesa - Channel
Camarillo - Canyon
Villa Park - Crestview
Aquinas - Ironwood
Loyola - Angelus
Simi Valley - Marmonte
Canyon (OC) - North Hills (At-Large)
Oak Park - Canyon (At-Large)
Murrieta Mesa - Big West Lower
Chaparral (Big West Upper) currently within range, but is under .500.
DIVISION 6
Huntington Beach - Sunset
Temecula Valley - Big West Lower
Chino Hills* - Baseline (At-Large)
Culver City - Bay (At-Large)
Colony - Citrus 4
Calabasas - Miramonte (At-Large)
Orange - Orange Coast
Eisenhower - Sunkist
Great Oak - Big West Lower
Trabuco Hills - Sea View
Yucaipa - Citrus Belt
North Torrance - Pioneer
Moorpark - Canyon
Palm Springs - Desert Empire
Mayfair - Gateway
Ramona - River Valley
Chino Hills is actually highest-ranked team in this Division, but flipped them to third, to have the top seeds be AQ/League Champs. Overall difference in rating was just one-tenth of a point. Culver City is another .500 at-large team included in the field. Four teams in Bay League are 1-1. Culver City lost to Mira Costa, but defeated Redondo (6-1). That, along with their 19.3 rating, edged them in.
DIVISION 7
Northview - Valle Vista
Capo Valley - South Coast (At-Large)
Serrano - Mojave River
La Habra - Freeway
Ontario Christian - Ironwood
Fountain Valley - Sunset (At-Large)
Western (OC) - Orange
Golden Valley - Foothill
Palm Desert - Desert Empire
Lawndale - Pioneer
Buena - Channel
Elsinore - Ivy
San Jacinto - Mountain Pass
Jurupa Hills - Sunkist (At-Large)
Monrovia - Rio Hondo
Laguna Hills - Pacific Hills
San Juan Hills (Sea View), La Mirada (Gateway), Westlake (Marmonte), ML King (Big West Lower) are all within range, but currently under .500. San Juan Hills is winless over their first seven games, but if I had to hazard a guess, I'd say they'll end up in the field, after Sea View play, with their 15 Cal Preps rating.
DIVISION 8
Bonita - Mountain West (At-Large)
Redondo - Bay
Liberty - Mountain Pass
Summit - Sunkist (At-Large)
Lakewood - Moore
Jordan - Moore (At-Large)
Claremont - San Antonio
Paloma Valley - Sunbelt
Aliso Niguel - Sea View
San Dimas - Valle Vista
Hemet - Inland Valley
Grant Terrace - San Andreas
Ventura - Channel (At-Large)
Crean Lutheran - Empire
Harvard Westlake - Del Rey
Sultana - Mojave River (At-Large)
Foothill (Crestview) Glendora (Citrus 4) Hesperia (Mojave River) Oxnard (Channel) El Toro (Sea View) St Paul (Angelus) all fall within range, but are currently under .500. Bonita is top-seed as an At-Large, as their CalPreps rating is significantly better than any of the teams around them (9.2 to 7.9). Also, they are significantly lower than Laguna Hills (10.1), so wouldn't make sense to bump them up to D7 and swap the Hawks down.
DIVISION 9
Norte Vista - River Valley
Kaiser - Sunkist
Brentwood - Gold Coast (At-Large)
John W. North - Ivy
Tahquitz - Mountain Pass
West Torrance - Pioneer
Troy - Freeway
Coachella Valley - Desert Valley
Norwalk - Mid-Cities
Palmdale - Golden
Granite Hills - Desert Sky (At-Large)
Vista Del Lago - Sunbelt
Peninsula - Bay (At-Large)
Burroughs - Pacific Upper
Village Christian - Ironwood (At-Large)
Moreno Valley - Inland Valley (At Large)
Hart (Foothill) falls within range, but currently under .500.
DIVISION 10
El Rancho - Del Rio
Santa Ana - Orange Coast
Chaffey - San Antonio
Dana Hills - Pacific Hills (At-Large)
Campbell Hall - Gold Coast
Laguna Beach - Pac 4
John Muir - Pacific Upper
Westminster - Pac 4
Alta Loma - Mountain West (At-Large)
Diamond Bar -Hacienda
Northwood - Pacific Hills
Hillcrest - River Valley
Garden Grove -Big 4
Cantwell-Sacred Heart -Camino Real
La Salle - Del Rey (At-Large)
Sonora - Freeway
Santiago (Big West Lower), Royal (Canyon) Rancho Verde (Ivy) Sunny Hills (Freeway) West Covina (San Antonio) and San Marcos (Channel) are all within range, but currently under .500. Hillcrest gets in as an AQ, by virtue of Friday's win over Patriot, which serves as the tie-breaker.
DIVISION 11
Quartz Hill - Golden
Shadow Hills - Desert Empire
Irvine - Pacific Hills (At-Large)
South Pasadena - Rio Hondo
Rio Hondo - Prep Gold Coast
Katella - Big 4
Capo Valley Christian - Mesquite
Heritage Christian - Ironwood
Patriot - River Valley (At-Large)
Baldwin Park - Mt Baldy 4
La Canada - Rio Hondo
Barstow - Desert Sky
Salesian - Camino Real
Compton - Moore (At-Large)
South Hills - Citrus 4
Pacifica - Empire
Temescal Canyon (Ivy). South Torrance (Pioneer) La Quinta (Desert Empire) Riverside Poly (Sunbelt) Canyon (Foothill) Los Osos (Citrus 4) Brea-Olinda (Crestview) Paraclete (Angelus) Rancho Mirage (Desert Empire) Dominguez (Gateway) Crespi (Angelus) all within range, but under .500.
DIVISION 12
Woodbridge - Pacific Valley
Carter - San Andreas
Bellflower - Mid Cities
Fillmore - Citrus Coast
Montebello - Almont
West Valley - Mountain Pass (At-Large)
Schurr - Almont
Hueneme - Citrus Coast
Bell Gardens - Almont
Walnut - Hacienda
Yucca Valley - Desert Valley
Bishop Montgomery - Camino Real
Arroyo - Mission Valley
Indio - Desert Valley
Rancho Alamitos - Garden Grove
Maranatha - Cottonwood
Fullerton (Freeway), Tustin (Empire) Antelope Valley (Golden) Rancho Christian (Inland Valley) California (Del Rio) Chino (Sierra) Redlands (Citrus Belt) all within range of West Valley's at-large bid, but currently under .500. West Valley is the last At-Large team into the field, with a CalPreps rating of -11.5.
DIVISION 13
Beckman - Pacific Valley
Indian Springs - Mountain Valley
Valley View - Inland Valley
Santa Ana Valley - Orange
Rialto - Skyline
San Bernardino - Mountain Valley
Santiago (OC) - Garden Grove
Los Amigos - Garden Grove
Rowland - Sierra
Azusa - Montview
Western Christian - Mesquite
Calvary Chapel* - Orange Coast
Bloomington - Skyline
Sierra Vista - Mt Baldy 4
Rubidoux - Mountain Valley
Cerritos - 605 League
Calvary Chapel, flipped with Bloomington, to avoid first-round match-up between teams in same league (Skyline). There's just 0.1 difference CalPreps rankings.
DIVISION 14
Rosemead - Mission Valley
Santa Rosa Academy - Cottonwood
Pomona - Sierra
Arrowhead Christian - Mesquite
Colton - Skyline
South El Monte - Mission Valley
Pioneer - 605 League
Hawthorne - Ocean
Whittier Christian - Cottonwood
Anaheim - Orange
Silver Valley - Manzanita
Temecula Prep - Manzanita
Garey - Miramonte
Gladstone - Montview
Ganesha - Miramonte
St Jeanne Lestonnac - Manzanita
AT-LARGE BERTHS
LAST FIVE IN
West Valley - Mountain Pass
Compton - Moore
Patriot - River Valley
Irvine - Pacific Hills
La Salle - Del Rey
LAST FIVE OUT
San Gabriel - Almont
Big Bear - Ironwood
Canyon Springs - Inland Valley
Santa Paula - Citrus Coast
Whittier - Del Rio