CIF-SS Playoff Projections, 10/9

Week 8

Okay, here they are. Believe it or not, we’re just four weeks away from the CIF Playoffs, so I present the first projection for 2023. Thanks to all those who’ve inquired. The plan is to do a projection after Week 9, and possibly after Week 10, if I can do it fast enough. Thanks you for reading, and of course, thanks to the good people at CalPreps.com, whose rating criteria I use to assemble these projections.

TEAMS UNDER .500

Every Year the CIF-SS issues their statement about teams under .500, but invariably things change when they do the projection. I kept it simple here. If, after seven weeks, a team is 3-4, I include them in the projection, even if they’re an Automatic Qualifier (AQ). This is, honestly, just to allow me to plow through this thing quicker. I’m guessing there will be significant movement between now and Week 9.

TIE BREAKERS

A lot of teams aren’t in league play yet, but for those that are, I tried to do as accurate a projection as possible. For example, in the Trinity League, J Serra and Orange Lutheran are both 1-1 in league play. J Serra won the head-to-head match-up, so I’ve made them the 3rd Place Automatic Qualifier in this projection. In situations where there’s no clear tie-breaker, I looked at both overall record and CalPreps rating.

LOOSE ENDS

Just a reminder that the AQ breakdown is as follows. Leagues between six and eight teams get three (3) Automatic Qualifier Spots; Five-Team leagues get two (2), and four team leagues get one (1). There is one nine-team league (Channel) in the CIF-SS, which will get four (4) AQ teams in the field. The Big West has twelve teams, but since it’s split into an Upper and Lower Division, both divisions get three (3) AQs, as six-team leagues. This will all be outlined in the CIF-SS Playoff Bulletin, when it’s posted. (As of publication, it had not been.)

For this projection, we’ve left Bishop Amat out, as they’re 2-5 going into Week 8, but if I had to guess, the Lancers will likely be in any final projection. Looking over the field, there’s also a chance that Division 1 may be a ten-team field. (We’ve projected them for eight, in this version.) Would the CIF have an eight-team field with five teams from the same league (Trinity), including two At-Large entries?

So here we go, field is 216 teams, with 172 Automatic Qualifiers and 44 At-large Teams. In this projection, our last At-Large team slots in at Division 11, so 12, 13 and 14 are All-AQ Brackets. The ratings should push to the mean, once league play starts in some of the smaller leagues.

While we’re at it, congratulations to Michael West, the new commissioner of the CIF Southern Section. Without any further adieu, here’s the field.

DIVISION 14

1. AB Miller Mountain Valley

2. Santa Rosa Academy Cottonwood

3. Santa Ana Valley Orange

4. La Quinta (OC) Garden Grove

5. Hawthorne Ocean

6. Jurupa Valley Mountain Valley

7. Artesia 605 League

8. Whittier Christian Cottonwood

9. Bolsa Grande Garden Grove

10. Los Amigos Garden Grove

11. Webb Manzanita

12. Anaheim Orange

13. La Puente Miramonte

14. Mountain View Mission Valley

15. Duarte Montview

16. Nuview Bridge Manzanita

DIVISION 13

1. South El Monte Mission Valley

2. California Del Rio

3. Chaffey San Antonio

4. San Gabriel Almont

5. Montclair Mt. Baldy 4

6. Viewpoint Gold Coast

7. Arroyo Mission Valley

8. Bloomington Skyline

9. Montebello Almont

10. Wilson (LA) Mt. Baldy

11. Indio Desert Valley

12. Nordhoff Citrus Coast

13. Ganesha Miramonte

14. Silver Valley Manzanita

15. San Bernardino Mountain Valley

16. Walnut Hacienda

DIVISION 12

1. San Gorgonio Skyline

2. Patriot River Valley

3. Bellflower Mid-Cities

4. Linfield Christian Mesquite

5. Cantwell-Sacred Heart Camino Real

6. Harvard-Westlake Del Rey

7. Valley View Inland Valley

8. Coachella Valley Desert Valley

9. Hillcrest River Valley

10. Yucca Valley Desert Valley

11. Arrowhead Christian Mesquite

12. Gahr Mid-Cities

13. Carter San Andreas

14. Arroyo Valley Skyline

15. Fillmore Citrus Coast

16. Cerritos 605 League

DIVISION 11

1. Capo Valley Christian Mesquite

2. Schurr Almont

3. Crescenta Valley Pacific-Upper, At-Large

4. Rancho Mirage Desert Empire

5. Northwood Pacific Coast, At-Large

6. Buena Channel

7. Monrovia Rio Hondo

8. Arcadia Pacific-Upper

9. Palmdale Golden

10. Orange Orange Coast

11. Beckman Pacific Hills

12. Maranatha Cottonwood

13. Westminster Pac-4

14. Quartz Hill Golden

15. Hemet Inland Valley

16. Palm Desert Desert Empire

DIVISION 10

1. North Torrance Pioneer

2. Serrano Mojave River, At-Large

3. Los Osos Citrus-4, At Large

4. St Margaret's Orange Coast

5. Kaiser San Andreas

6. San Dimas Valle Vista, At-Large

7. Sonora Freeway

8. Brea-Olinda Crestview, At-Large

9. San Marino Rio Hondo

10. Paloma Valley Sunbelt

11. Rancho Christian Inland Valley, At-Large

12. Marina Big 4

13. Elsinore Ivy

14. Sultana Mojave River, At Large

15. Segerstrom Big 4

16. Los Altos Valle Vista, At-Large

DIVISION 9

1. Vista Del Lago Sunbelt

2. Santa Monica Bay, At-Large

3. St. Anthony Del Rey

4. Castaic Foothill, At-Large

5. Brentwood Gold Coast, At-Large

6. Santa Ana Orange Coast

7. Camarillo Canyon, At-Large

8. Temecula Valley Big West-Lower, At-Large

9. Tahquitz Mountain Pass

10. Dominguez Gateway, At-Large

11. Diamond Bar Hacienda

12. West Covina San Antonio

13. South Pasadena Rio Hondo

14. Canyon (Ventura) Foothill, At-Large

15. Troy Freeway

16. Torrance Pioneer

DIVISION 8

1. Hart Foothill

2. Salesian Camino Real

3. Irvine Pacific Hills

4. El Dorado North Hills, At-Large

5. ML King Big West-Lower

6. Burroughs Pacific-Upper

7. Granite Hills Desert Sky

8. Jurupa Hills Sunkist, At-Large

9. Dana Hills Pacific Hills

10. John Muir Pacific-Upper

11. Aliso Niguel Sea View

12. Summit Sunkist

13. Xavier Prep Desert Empire

14. Rio Hondo Prep Gold Coast

15. Fountain Valley Sunset, At-Large

16. Kennedy (OC) Empire, At-Large

DIVISION 7

1. Mayfair Gateway

2. Eisenhower Sunkist

3. Foothill Crestview, At Large

4. Rio Mesa Channel, At-Large

5. West Ranch Foothill

6. Crean Lutheran Empire

7. Covina Sierra

8. Chino Sierra

9. Highland Golden

10. Redondo Bay

11. Barstow Desert Sky

12. Village Christian Ironwood

13. Lakewood Moore

14. La Habra Freeway

15. Jordan Moore, At-Large

16. Diamond Ranch Valle Vista, At-Large

DIVISION 6

1. Aquinas Ironwood

2. Cypress Empire

3. Thousand Oaks Canyon

4. Murrieta Mesa Big West-Lower

5. Agoura Canyon, At-Large

6. Colony Citrus 4

7. Rancho Verde Ivy

8. Ventura Channel

9. Yucaipa Citrus Belt, At-large

10. Ontario Christian Ironwood

11. Lawndale Pioneer

12. Glendora Citrus 4

13. El Modena North Hills, At-Large

14. Liberty Mountain Pass

15. Laguna Beach Pac-4

16. Huntington Beach Sunset, At-Large

DIVISION 5

1. Western (OC) Orange

2. Newbury Park Canyon

3. Chino Hills Baseline

4. Culver City Bay

5. Norco Big West-Upper, At-large

6. Norte Vista River Valley

7. Hesperia Mojave River

8. San Jacinto Mountain Pass

9. Northview Valle Vista, At-Large

10. Great Oak Big West-Lower

11. Orange Vista Ivy

12. Bonita Mountain West

13. Trabuco Hills Sea View

14. Simi Valley Marmonte

15. Laguna Hills Pacific Coast

16. Apple Valley Mojave River

DIVISION 4

1. Inglewood Ocean

2. Citrus Valley Citrus Belt

3. Tesoro South Coast, At Large

4. Paraclete Angelus

5. Roosevelt Big West-Upper, At-Large

6. Loyola Angelus

7. Moorpark Canyon

8. La Serna Del Rio

9. Ayala Mountain West

10. Yorba Linda Crestview

11. Santa Barbara Channel

12. St Paul Angelus, At-Large

13. Downey Gateway

14. St. Monica Camino Real

15. Cathedral Angelus, At-Large

16. Newport Harbor Sunset, At-Large

DIVISION 3

1. Villa Park Crestview

2. Upland Baseline, At Large

3. Oak Hills Mojave River

4. Chaparral Big West-Upper, At-Large

5. Pacifica (Oxnard) Channel

6. Chaminade Mission

7. Millikan Moore

8. Beaumont Citrus Belt

9. St Bonaventure Marmonte

10. St Francis Angelus

11. Corona Del Mar Sunset

12. Etiwanda Baseline, At-Large

13. Warren Gateway

14. Cajon Citrus Belt

15. Capo Valley South Coast

16. Tustin Empire

DIVISION 2

1. Rancho Cucamonga Baseline

2. Serra Gardena Mission

3. San Clemente South Coast

4. Oaks Christian Marmonte

5. Mission Viejo South Coast

6. Servite Trinity, At-Large

7. Los Alamitos Sunset

8. Murrieta Valley Big West-Upper

9. Palos Verdes Bay

10. Damien Baseline

11. Vista Murrieta Big West-Upper

12. Valencia Foothill

13. Notre Dame (SO) Mission, At-Large

14. San Juan Hills Sea View

15. Edison Sunset

16. Leuzinger Ocean

DIVISION 1

1. Mater Dei Trinity

2. St. John Bosco Trinity

3. Sierra Canyon Mission

4. Centennial Big West-Upper

5. J Serra Trinity

6. Orange Lutheran Trinity, At-Large

7. Long Beach Poly Moore

8. Santa Margarita Trinity, At-Large

LAST TEAMS OUT

1. Esperanza North Hills

2. West Valley Mountain Pass

3. Peninsula Bay

4. Redlands Citrus Belt

5. Redlands East Valley Citrus Belt

6. Long Beach Wilson Moore

7. South Hills Citrus 4

8. Sunny Hills Freeway

9. Grand Terrace Sunkist

10. La Quinta Desert Empire

LAST TEAMS IN

1. Northwood Pacific Coast

2. Crescenta Valley Pacific-Upper

3. Los Altos Valle Vista

4. Sultana Mojave River

5. Rancho Christian Inland Valley

6. Brea-Olinda Crestview

7. San Dimas Valle Vista

8. Los Osos Citrus 4

9. Serrano Mojave River

10. Canyon (Ventura) Foothill

AT-LARGE TEAMS