CIF Projections Report Card
Playoff Capsules
Most recent episode of the Coaches’ Perspective, previewing Ramona-San Gorgonio
When I was a kid, I dreaded getting my report card. Don't get me wrong, I was a pretty good student, but my parents would always fixate on that one bad grade. I wish I could have been graded on Football, Baseball, Basketball and Hockey, I surely would have brought home straight As every time!
Well, now I can. With the playoffs about to start, let's take a look back at my final CIF-SS Playoff Projections. In the field of 216, comprised of 175 Auto Qualifiers and 41 At-Large Bids, I had 205 of the 216 correct. That's 94.9%, and 196 of 216 in correct divisions, which comes in at about 91% (.907). Let's break down where I went wrong.
94.9% TEAMS IN FIELD 90.7% TEAMS IN DIVISIONS
The main differences came with regard to At-Large Bids. I had Roosevelt, Sherman Oaks-Notre Dame, Tesoro, Adelanto, Castaic, Canyon, Heritage Christian, West Valley, Palm Desert, Hueneme and Cathedral City in the final field. The committee chose Santa Margarita, Charter Oak, Huntington Beach, Fountain Valley, Grace Brethren, Montclair, Ocean View, Los Altos, Brea Olinda, Lynwood, and Jurupa Hills instead.
In Division 1, I had 7 of 8 correct, leaving out Santa Margarita, in favor of Rancho Cucamonga, who ended up in Division 2. Up until the weekend, there was some question as to how many teams were going to be in D1. I'd heard 10, then 12, at the last minute, maybe only 4. I received a text Saturday morning, that it was going to be eight. I'd thought for a long time that it would be ten, since the committee would want to get all the Trinity League teams in. When I learned it was eight, I figured one would be out. With J Serra getting the third AQ, and Orange Lutheran being in, that left Servite and Santa Margarita. Since the Friars had beaten the Eagles, I left Santa Margarita on the cutting room floor, turns out, I was wrong.
That pushed Rancho Cucamonga (who I had in D1) into Division 2 from my projection. With Rancho pushed down, Chaminade (who I had in D2) got pushed down into D3. That gave me 15 of 16 in D2. In D3, I included both Notre Dame-Sherman Oaks and Roosevelt, who were out of the field, giving me 14 out of 16 teams.
I included Tesoro in Division 4, along with St Francis, St Francis was actually in D3, while Tesoro was left out altogether, and two teams that I'd had in D5, Great Oak and Norte Vista, got pushed up into Division 4. So I ended up with 14 of 16 in both D4 and D5. Eisenhower and Ventura ended up in Division 5 (I had them in Division 6) Dana Hills should have been in D6, along with Huntington Beach, who I'd left out of the field. The Sunset League may be the top public league in Orange County. Dana Hills got pushed down to D7, instead of John Muir, who I had there, but instead would end up in Division 8. Overall, had 14 of 16 teams in Divisions 4, 5, 6, and 15 of 16 in Division 7.
Missed three teams in Division 8, with Muir, Los Osos and Santa Monica in the field. but I whiffed on Charter Oak and Fountain Valley. I knew Fountain Valley was on the bubble, but Charter Oak got an At-Large Big at 2-8. I'd limited most of my At-Large teams to overall .500 teams. I had Los Osos and Santa Monica in the field, but both ended up in Division 9. So both D8 and D9 were 13 of 16 brackets for me.
I had Adelanto, Castaic, and Canyon in D9 instead of Santa Monica, Los Osos and St Margaret's. I had all three in the field, just in different divisions. None of the three teams I had in, in their stead, even made the field.
Division 10 is where I placed St. Margaret's, instead of Brea-Olinda. St. Margaret's ended up in D9, so my D10 Bracket ended up with 15 of 16 teams correct. I went 13 of 16 in D11, including Heritage Christian, West Valley and Palm Desert, instead of Los Altos (who I didn't place in the field), Westminster and Gahr. I did have Gahr and Westminster in D12, along with Arcadia who didn't make the field, instead of Buena Park, LA Wilson and South El Monte. That was 13 of 16 in Division 12 as well.
Division 13 was my worst bracket, only having 12 of 16, which included Hueneme and Cathedral City, neither of whom made the final field, instead of Grace Brethren and Montclair, who did. Jurupa Valley and Los Amigos made the field, I had them in as well, Just in D14. I got 14 of 16 in Division 14, leaving out Ocean View and Lynwood.
So, while not an exact science, the good people at CalPreps provide enough information to do a reasonable examination of the possible field. Would have loved to have been in that room to see how some of the close decisions were made. Either way, enjoy the games. Here are come capsules from games we'll be covering in Riverside.
Check out most recent episode of the Friday Night “Pep” Rally, where we break down playoff scenarios.
PLAYOFF CAPSULES
D11 #5 RAMONA (5-5, 2-3 River Valley) vs. #12 SAN GORGONIO (9-1, 5-0 Skyline)
The Rams got the #5 seed in Division 11, as the 4th place team out of the River Valley League. The RVL has three teams win playoff games last year, and in '21 Arlington snuck in and won the D13 Title, getting on a roll, so the league has had pretty good success in recent years.
This is the sixth straight year Ken Mushinskie (Ramona) has taken his team to the CIF Playoffs, and they've won at least one game in the past three playoff trips (there were no CIF Playoffs in '20). San Gorgonio is back in the CIF Playoffs for the first time since 2019, but made the playoffs ten straight years, from 2010 to 2019, including CIF titles in 2016 (D7) and 2018 (D9). First-Year San Gorgonio Head Coach took Indian Springs to their first CIF Playoffs in school history in 2021, reaching the D14 semi-finals.
The Spartans have a high-flying offense, led by their QB, Ontario transfer Payton Clark, and they'll try and get Ramona into a track meet. Clark threw for over 2,300 yards with 23 TD to just 6 INT. Gary Hedlund's unit, rolled up nearly 340 yards per game, and averaged 36 points per game, with three receivers who averaged more than fifteen yards per catch. Ramona, for their part, will likely try and play some ball control, though their o-line has been a little up and down this year, and they're coming off a game where Norte Vista kind of manhandled them a little on the inside.
Defensively, San G will commit to stop the run, but don't count out Rams’ QB Jeremy Acosta who, while undersized, is pretty skilled at making plays out of the pocket.
Another key match-up will be Ramona’s pass defense, on the outside, against the Spartans' skills' who can take the top of the defense, while Dillon Carolina, the bruising tailback, should keep Ramona honest, running between the tackles. He averages about eight yards every time he carries the ball. The Ramona defense, will have awareness for him, particularly guys like Angel Barrios and Peter Mesa, who have been at the top of their game, lately for Gabe Guzman's defense.
This should be a close game, but when we take a closer look at the schedules, Ramona played teams with a .480 winning percentage, compared to .390 for the Spartans. The Rams faced six playoff teams on their road, while San Gorgonio only faced three, only one in the non-league schedule. Maybe the more battle-tested team has an advantage going into the fourth quarter, but San G has played some close games as well, including a 27-21 overtime thriller against Fontana.
Last point here, Head Coach Ken Mushinskie has made the CIF Playoffs every year since taking the reins at Ram High in ‘17. His teams have won at least one CIF Playoff game over their last three appearances (there were no Playoffs in ‘20). Also, the River Valley League has been very good in the playoffs. Three teams (No Vi, Ramona, and Hillcrest) won playoff games in 2022, and lest we forget third-place Arlington, sneaking in with a 2-8 record in 2021, and going all the way to the State Final.
Ramona is the home team, despite being at at-large entry, and a fourth-place finisher in the RVL, while San Gorgonio is the Skyline Champion. Ramona has a win this year over a league champion, in Kaiser, and three of their losses came by one score. San G boasts road wins over 8-2 teams Bloomington and Arroyo Valley, and are playing their best football, at the right time of the season.
On the San Gorgonio side, Head Coach Chris Chaddick has been somewhat of a game changer, taking an Indian Springs program, that hadn't ever made the playoffs, since their inception in 2013, to the CIF D13 Semi Finals in 2021, and now trying to resurrect, a once-proud San G program back to when in won CIF Titles in 2016 (D7) and 2018 (D9). Don't count them out. Should be a fun one from Ramona High on Friday. Geoff Gorham and I will have all the action for you, via Riverside TV.
D11 #3 ESPERANZA (5-5, 1-2 North Hills) vs. #14 RIVERSIDE POLY (4-6, 2-1 Sunbelt)
The playoffs started for the Bears on Friday, as they gutted out an impressive 17-13 win over Vista Del Lago, to claim the 2nd-Place AQ out of the Sunbelt. They now go on the road to Esperanza, who were an At-Large selection out of North Hills, finishing in third place behind Villa Park and El Dorado.
Esperanza is fairly balanced, as they can run the ball with Aaron Forsgren, who rolled up nearly 1,500 rush yards and found the end zone 18 times, but they also have a solid passing attack. QB Noah Puertas threw for nearly 1,200 yards and 10 TD, while his top receiver, Edward Kutsishvilli totalled more than five hundred yards, and latched on to 7 of those 10 TD. The Aztecs' defense did allow nearly thirty points per game, but did play eight playoff teams and three league champions. Their opponents' winning percentage, was .530.
The Bears played a bunch of close games in 2023. In fact, three of their six losses, came by a total of ten points, and overall, seven of their ten games were decided by one score or less, the Bears were 3-4 in those games, including 2-0 in the month of October. The Bears were ravaged by injuries early and seemed to have gotten healthy over the last month of the season. Following a 56-21 loss to Paloma Valley on September 30, Poly has gone 3-0, allowing just 46 points over their last three games.
First-Year Head Coach Jeron Gilbert has NFL ties, and has sunk all of his energy into the defense, which was solid all year, despite missing pieces for large parts of the season. They allowed 354 yards to Vista Del Lago, in a de facto playoff game in Week 10, but surrendered just 13 points. With Senior DL, and three-year varsity guy Keaton Stokely finally healthy, it's allowed Sophomore standout Benji Matthews to roam free, and really be force on the defensive front, while linebackers Paul Robles III and Israel Morales have been consistent all year for the Bears.
The offense is run by Junior QB Victor Aguilar who has grown as a decision-maker, and anchored by the big offensive line opening holes for Senior RB J'Shaun Thomas, who is very good between the tackles. The receiving corps, led by Senior playmaker De'Mahje Allen, has also matured, with Joshua Dominguez-Wales and Sophomore Matthew Henry also making an impact.
Second-Year Head Coach JP Presley is looking to lead the Aztecs' back on a playoff run, which they had in 2019, under previous Head Coach Wes Choate, that led to a D13 Title over Ramona, with the championship game taking place in Riverside. Perhaps the Bears can provide a little 951 payback, on the road. Winner of this game gets winner of Los Altos-Patriot.
D11 #8 Linfield Christian (7-3, 4-1 Mesquite) vs. #9 Hillcrest (5-5, 4-1 River Valley)
Should be another solid match-up in D11. Linfield opponents had a winning percentage of .455 on the season, while Hillcrest's SOS checked in at .470. The Trojans played against six playoff teams on the season, and had five games decided by one score or less, including three one-point games. The Lions played four playoff teams, and did have two tight games, a two-point win over Norwalk, on 9/15 and a two-point loss against Capistrano Valley Christian, on September 30th.
The Lions' offense is led by their rushing attack, the one-two punch of Senior John Reynoso (622 yards and 3 TD) and Sophomore Micah Little (593 yards and 9 TD). Little averaged nearly twelve yards per rush, the leading receiver for Linfield Christian is Junior Marcus Dylke (576 yards 9 TD), as Junior QB Thomas Paschal threw for 1,320 yards and 13 TD. Paschal also ran for 101 yards and 3 TD.
The Linfield Christian defense did pitch three shutouts on the season, and allowed just 15.7 points per game on the season. On offense, they feature a balanced attack, that averaged nearly 31 points and 350 yards per game, 150 passing and 190 rushing. Braylen Musnon-McDowell led Linfield with 90 tackles on the season, and Junior two-way standout Marcus Dylke captured five interceptions, with a fumble recovery as well. The Lions' D came up with twenty takeaways.
Hillcrest is led by their Senior QB, Christian Alvarado who missed most of last year, stepped in this season and threw for over 1,400 yards and 12 TD. Sophomore Matt Ramos has become a triple threat, able to lineup at either QB, RB or WR to the tune of 542 total yards, while wide receivers Nicholas Shaw (502 yds 4 TD), and Jacob McDowell (367 yds 2 TD) played a big role in Alvardo's development at QB. The Trojans hope to have WR Julian Sandoval, who missed most of the year with an injury, available for the playoffs. He had 57 catches and 9 TD in 2022.
Seniors Muhammad Lahlisi and James Maldanado led the Hillcrest defense in tackles, while Matt Ramos anchored the secondary with four interceptions and nine passes defensed. Hillcrest allowed 21 points or less in six of their ten games, an average of 23.8 per game. The Trojans ended the season on a four-game win streak, where they conceded 20.3 points per game.
This might be the most evenly-matched first-round contest featuring Inland teams. The winner will draw the victor of Quartz Hill vs. Gahr. Travis Carter's Trojans were one of three River Valley teams to get a playoff win in '22, and they hope to do it again in '23. DeChon Burns won a 2018 D12 Title and led the Lions to the D11 Semis in 2019, but haven't won a playoff game since. They'll look to turn that around tomorrow.
D7 #3 ML King (6-4, 3-2 Big West Lower) vs. #14 Lakewood (5-5, 4-2 Moore)
Third-Year Head Coach Jason McMains led the Wolves to back-to-back playoff appearances for the first time since Ken Mushinskie did it in 2006 and 2007. Last year, McMains piloted King to their first CIF Playoff Win since 2016. They'll face Justin Utopo's Lakewood team in the first round of D7 on Friday.
The Lancers played a top-flight schedule, with opponents sporting a .580 winning percentage, and faced seven playoff teams over their ten games. They also have some experience coming East, as they opened the year in the IE against Orange Vista, a game where Coyotes outlasted Lakewood 27-20. Their best win on the season was over Moore League foe Jordan, while their best overall win was Week 1, on the road at San Dimas. Give credit to Head Coach Justin Utupo, himself a graduate of Lakewood, who went on to play at Notre Dame, for assembling a gauntlet of a schedule, to get his team ready for league play, and the CIF playoffs.
The Lancers are a balanced team, averaging nearly 380 yards per game, as Sophomore QB Kade Casillas threw for over 2,000 yards and ran for over 300, completing 18 TD passes and running for two on his own. Seven different Lancer receivers caught a TD pass, with four having caught more than one. Senior WRs Caleb Tafua (31 rec 470yds) and JT Dacoud (50 rec 753 yards) each caught seven. Senior Charlie Wright (514 yards 4 TD) and Junior Nytrell Miller (485 yards TD) led the Lakewood rushing attack.
Senior Tyree McCowen leads the Lakewood defense with 113 tackles, while the pass rush is anchored by Junior Rovana Tufugafale, who had nine sacks on the season. The Lancers' defense is larcenous, having forced 21 turnovers on the season, with three defensive players accounting for three picks or more. The secondary is led by two Sophomores, as Ayeven Aupiu had four interceptions to go with seven passes defensed, while Tiwan Jones picked three balls and knocked away ten more.
Last year, Lakewood reached the D8 Final, but apropos for our discussion, did it with a couple of wins over Inland teams. They beat Hemet in the opening round, and defeated Rancho Verde in Moreno Valley to reach the final, where they lost to Northwood. Will back-to-back playoff berths, the Lancers have qualified for CIF just three times since 2017. Between 2003 and 2016, Lakewood missed the playoffs once, in 2015, reaching the D1/Pac-5 Semis in 2009, 2008 and 2004.
Senior QB Joshua Harper (1,839 pass yards 18 TD) leads the King attack, and is a great story, as a guy who came up through the program, waited his turn, and now has a chance to guide his team to a playoff run. The Wolves have numerous playmakers, including Senior Sam Green (510 rec uds 7 TD) and Sophomore Blake Bowen (556 rec yds and 7TD in just 6 games). King averaged 320 yards and 27.3 points per game on the season. Their opponents posted a .450 winning percentage on the season, and they faced five teams that made the CIF Playoffs.
Winning or losing for King could come down to how they run the ball, behind their young O-Line. Junior Noah Villareal (448 yards 6 TD) was their between the tackles runner for most of the year, but seemed to fade at the end of the year. Senior Kies Furrha, back from injury, provides some relief, as a change of pace, which should help. King's special teams have been very good as well, from their return game, to their kicker, Sophomore Lucas Akutagawa.
The core of the Wolves' defense is built around Juniors Andrew Dixon (DL), Kaleo Browne (LB), Max Hensche (LB) and Aaron Porter (S), along with Seniors Christian Hicks and Sam Green. They will be challenged on Friday, but should be a tremendous atmosphere on Van Buren and Wood, for this one.
You can catch this one on Riverside TV as well, Nick Rice and JR Ybarra have the call.
D4 #1 Loyola (5-5, 4-1 Angelus) vs. #16 Norte Vista (9-1, 5-0 River Valley)
This is a tough draw for Norte Vista, who probably would have been better off in Division 5, but the brackets pause for no one. It will be a tough match-up, but the Braves should be competitive, and their playmakers, Taejohn Henderson and Dreaddie Allain should be up to the challenge to play some “Big Boy” football. The challenge for Ken Batdorf will be how to effectively utilize his two weapons. Look for him to open it up a little bit for Junior QB Seth Bolender, who also has Senior WR Eli Martinez at his disposal.
The Cubs' rushing game is led by Sophomore RB Sean Morris, who had nearly 1,000 yards on the season, to go with 8 TD. Junior QB Thomas Knyal (1,523 yards and 15 TD) has a couple of solid receivers to throw to, in Senior Khalil Cueva (46 rec 499yds 5TD) and Junior Duke Giarraputo (38rec 496 yards 5 TD). On defense, Loyola allowed just 52 points over their last four games, all wins. Eight of ten Cubs' opponents qualified for the CIF Playoffs, all of whom are in the Top Four Divisions. The Cubs opponents posted a combined .580 winning percentage.
Fundamentally this game comes down to the battle in the trenches. If Norte Vista holds their own, could be a very intriguing match-up for the Braves. You'd have to consider Loyola the favorite, but Norte Vista does have playmakers on the defensive side as well.
If you want to go back over out projections, here is our Final Field.