CIF Playoff Projections, Week 9

October 16, 2023

On the set of the Friday Night “Pep” Rally, with Geoff Gorham and Pep Fernandez.

Projections are through the games of Week 8, and based on the ratings published by CalPreps. League play began in the four-team pods this week, so there was some “Double Jeopardy” type of shifting, in terms of some seedings, but this will eventually settle in. In terms of tie-breakers for AQ in some of the leagues, I tried to go with head-to-head match-ups whenever I could, followed by “Best Win” and then, if need be, I just went by highest overall rating.

Made a decision to go with a Ten-Team bracket in Division 1. Wouldn’t be shocked if Trinity got three At-Large berths after AQs are determined. Obviously, San John Bosco win over Mater Dei, kind of sent a ripple through the rankings. The Monarchs went from a 103.5 rating on CalPreps to 87.9.

As far as At-Large teams, tried to keep it to teams that were .500, but did have a few exceptions. It was made easier by some teams that will clearly get in, but were in some of those four-team pods, and lost their first league match-up. So 172 AQ and 46 At-Large teams, split over fourteen divisions. Here we go…

These are all AQ teams, with California Military sneaking in, as the third-place team out if the Manzanita.

In D13, also a full bracket of Automatic Qualifiers.

All Automatic Qualifiers in D12 as well, with a heavy population of Inland Empire schools. Chris Chaddick’s San Gorgonio squad at the top of the bracket with Hillcrest out of the River Valley at the two-seed. Compelling first-round match-ups, looking at potential Arrowhead Christian-Rim of the World game at 4/13 and Patriot-Arroyo Valley on the 5/12 line.

D11 is the last bracket with At-Large schools. Redlands get in out of the Citrus Belt, earning a first-round match-up against another At-Large, Heritage Christian, out of the Ironwood. West Valley gets in, out of the tough Mountain Pass, while John W. North win over Temescal Canyon gets them an AQ berth, though Elsinore may have something to say about that, when they play, in Week 9.

Some decent regional match-ups in D10. Torrance-Schurr on the 3/14 line, while the 7/10 match-up Orange and Marina, presents a good OC showdown, as does the 5/12 line, where Segerstrom matches up with Capo Valley Christian.

Heavy At-large presence in D9, from some solid leagues. Temecula Valley, Dominguez, Los Osos, San Dimas, and even Canyon could make things interesting.

D8 has nice IE match-up on 6/11 line with Summit-Tahquitz, 7/10 match-up between Charter Oak and Rio Hondo is battle for 210 Freeway supremacy. Good inter-regional possibilities as well, with Vista Del Lago-Camarillo on the 8/9 line, and Muir-Aliso Niguel in the 1/16 match-up.

D7 looks like the classic “Bus Trip” bracket with a lot of travel for Round 1. 6/11 match-up has Redondo traveling to Barstow, while the Cougars of Granite Hills, would get a guided tour of Burbank, heading to Burroughs, on the 7/10 line. Might I suggest a stop at Bob’s Big Boy?

Little bit of everything in Division 6. 1/16 match-up of Ventura and Hart could be a fun one for the fans, if the 126 doesn’t get too jammed. El Modena and Huntington Beach on 7/10 line, is a nice match-up, right in the heart of the OC. Rio Mesa, traveling to Eisenhower, on 5/12 line, could be a fun clash, while 8/9 match-up harkens back to David Letterman hosting the 1995 Academy Awards, “Agoura, Glendora… Glendora, Agoura.”

D5 ain’t messing around. How about a re-match between San Jacinto and Rancho Verde on the 5/12 line? Newbury Park taking on Simi Valley, at 6/11, yes please! Upstart Liberty, taking on Orange Vista, in a Backyard Battle kind of a match-up.

Couple of fun regional match-ups in D4, starting off with top-seeded Tesoro potentially playing Trabuco Hills, and that 6/11 match-up between Yorba Linda and Chino Hills.

Some great match-ups between good leagues in D3. Top-seeded Chaminade out of the Mission, taking on Roosevelt, from the Big West, the 2/15 line featuring Pacifica from the Channel and Capo Valley from the South Coast, and the 3/14 match-up, where Millikan (Moore) and Etiwanda (Baseline) rep a couple of the better Public School Leagues in SoCal.

D2 is a gauntlet, but a small price to play, to avoid the likes of Mater Dei and St. John Bosco in the early rounds. Sunset, Big West, Baseline, and South Coast all leagues with multiple entries in this bracket.

Ten-team bracket with five teams out of the Trinity League. First-Round Byes for the Top Six teams in this group. Intriguing first-round games, with Rancho Cucamonga matched up with Serra Gardena, and Long Beach Poly taking on J Serra.

South Hills the last team in, out of the Citrus 4, if Division 1 had been an eight-team bracket, last team in would’ve been Redlands, out of the Citrus Belt. Last two weeks will also play heavily into some of these team’s fortunes. Some could conceivably earn AQ bids in their leagues, as well.

Teams on the bubble, not a lot of margin for error, but could change things with wins in last two games, and potentially getting some help, depending how other games in their respective leagues go.

AT-LARGE TEAMS, THROUGH GAMES OF 10/13 (WEEK 8)

As always, thanks for reading. Next couple of weeks, we should see a lot of shifting and moving, depending on how league play shakes out. Some key league match-ups happening this weekend. We could also see some fluctuation between AQ teams and At-Large teams next week, as well.