CIF Playoff Projections, September 30
Week Seven
October means Playoff Baseball, Pumpkin Spice, and Halloween Prep. It also means we’re bringing back our CIF Playoff Projections. In the words of Aaron Lewis “It’s been a while,” but happy to share, as I try to make sense of the CIF’s process.
Really, it’s pretty simple, we go to Cal Preps, take their rankings, and try to figure out which teams will be in which divisions. Last year’s projections weren’t half-bad. We didn’t get everything right, but we did get a good percentage of match-ups in the ballpark, and even hit some right on the nose.
Okay, so it’s early, and since some leagues haven’t started playing yet, we’ve used overall records and rankings to extrapolate which teams will get the AQ in each league. For now, we’ll go with the caveat that teams under .500 won’t get at-large bids. We’ll get deeper into that as teams get further into their league schedules.
Again, remember, this is not so much a “prediction” as it is a “projection” based on CalPreps numbers, and CIF Playoff Bulletin (which should be out any day now.) So here we go. And no, I don’t hate your team, and like that other team. If I make you angry, I’m on Riverside TV every Friday (and sometimes even Thursday and Saturday) covering HS Football. Feel free to have a viewing party and throw things at me, while watching those games. Make me the villain. I rather enjoy that. I loved Jake the Snake when I was a kid. He was a really cool villain. I’ve been watching this movie recently, “Scarface” and man, Tony Montana sure makes being a villain look cool. I haven’t finished watching yet, and really hoping it ends well.
Seriously, though, thanks to all of you for reading, sharing, commenting, and engaging. It’s always fun. So here we go, 177 AQ, 39 At-Large for a total of 216 teams. An eight-team bracket for Division 1, and then sixteen teams for Divisions 2 through 14. Looking forward to tracking all the ebbs and flows over the next three weeks, until we see the real thing. And remember, to quote Tony Montana, “I always tell the truth…even when I lie!”
DIVISION 1 (96.9 to 58.0)
Mater Dei - Trinity
St John Bosco - Trinity
Centennial - Big West - Upper
Long Beach Poly - Moore
Mission Viejo - South Coast
Chaminade - Mission
Los Alamitos - Sunset
Edison - Sunset
Top of the bracket sets up with Monarchs and Braves, who play on Friday. Edison and Los Al face off on Thursday, October 13, adding some intrigue. Jackrabbits and Diablos at 4/5 would be interesting pairing of public schools in 1st Round.
DIVISION 2 (56.8 to 42.0) Two (2) At-Large
Bishop Amat - Mission
Orange Lutheran - Trinity
J Serra - Trinity (At-Large)
Oak Hills - Mojave River
Serra (Gardena) - Mission
Citrus Valley - Citrus Belt
Inglewood - Ocean
Murrieta Valley - Big West – Upper
Santa Margarita - Trinity (At-Large)
Rancho Cucamonga - Baseline
Warren - Gateway
Apple Valley - Mojave River
Yorba Linda - Crestview
Norco - Big West – Upper
Oaks Christian - Marmonte
La Serna - Del Rio
DIVISION 3 (42.0 to 29.6) Four (4) At-Large
Corona Del Mar - Sunset
St Bonaventure - Marmonte
San Clemente - South Coast
West Ranch - Foothill
Ayala - Mountain West
Cajon - Citrus Belt
El Modena - North Hills
Pasadena - Pacific-Upper
Leuzinger - Ocean
Pacifica (Oxnard) - Channel
Bishop Diego - Marmonte (At-Large)
Cathedral - Angelus
Vista Murrieta - Big West-Upper (At-Large)
Upland - Baseline (At-Large)
Saugus - Foothill (At-Large)
Pius X - Del Rey
Sierra Canyon (2-4), Alemany (2-3), Servite (1-5) and Damien (2-5), all fall within range, but currently have records under .500.
DIVISION 4 (29.5 to 25.0) Four (4) At-Large
Cypress - Empire
Thousand Oaks - Canyon
Tesoro - South Coast (At-Large)
Valencia - Foothill
Santa Barbara - Channel
Newport Harbor - Sunset (At-Large)
Charter Oak - Mountain West
Orange Vista - Ivy
Mira Costa - Bay
Newbury Park - Canyon
Highland - Golden
Simi Valley - Marmonte
Roosevelt - Big West-Upper (At-Large)
Downey - Gateway
Beaumont - Citrus Belt (At-Large)
Camarillo - Canyon
Millikan (1-6) falls in range for Division 4, but is currently under .500.
DIVISION 5 (24.5 to 17.3) Two (2) At-Large
El Dorado - North Hills
Canyon (OC) - North Hills (At-Large)
Silverado - Desert Sky
Rio Mesa - Channel
Temecula Valley - Big West-Lower
Palos Verdes - Bay
Etiwanda - Baseline
Aquinas - Ironwood
La Mirada - Gateway
St Francis - Angelus
Chino Hills - Baseline (At-Large)
Villa Park - Crestview
Great Oak - Big West-Lower
Loyola - Angelus
Colony - Citrus 4
Eisenhower - Sunkist
Notre Dame-SO (2-4) and Chaparral (2-4) both fall within range, but are currently under .500.
***NOTE: Initial D5 projection matched up Temecula Valley (4) with Great Oak (13), who play in the same league. We just flipped Temecula Valley and Rio Mesa, who had the same 22 rating, from Cal Preps, at time of publication.***
DIVISION 6 (17.1 to 12.7) Six (6) At-Large
Orange - Orange Coast
Oak Park - Canyon (At-Large)
Trabuco Hills - Sea View
ML King - Big West-Lower (At-Large)
Murrieta Mesa - Big West-Lower
Fountain Valley - Sunset (At-Large)
Palm Springs - Desert Empire
Ontario Christian - Ironwood
Huntington Beach - Sunset (At-Large)
Northview - Valle Vista
Serrano - Mojave River (At-Large)
San Juan Hills - Sea View
Yucaipa - Citrus Belt
Calabasas - Marmonte (At-Large)
North Torrance - Pioneer.
Western (OC) - Orange
Culver City (2-4) and Westlake (2-4) both within range, but currently under .500. San Juan Hills currently winless, but project as AQ from Sea View, based on 13.9 ranking.
DIVISION 7 (12.0 to 7.7) Eight (8) At-Large
Ramona - River Valley
Laguna Hills - Pacific Hills
Mayfair - Gateway (At-Large)
Redondo - Bay
Jurupa Hills - Sunkist (At-Large)
Golden Valley - Foothill
Capo Valley - South Coast (At-Large)
Moorpark - Canyon (At-Large)
Monrovia - Rio Hondo
San Jacinto - Mountain Pass
Palm Desert - Desert Empire (At-Large)
Foothill - Crestview (At-Large)
Bonita - Mountain West (At-Large)
La Habra - Freeway
Lawndale - Pioneer
Summit - Sunkist (At-Large)
DIVISION 8 (7.7 to 3.4) Five (5) At-Large
Buena - Channel
Glendora - Citrus 4
Ventura - Channel (At-Large)
Lakewood - Moore
Aliso Niguel - Sea View (At-Large)
Liberty - Mountain Pass
Elsinore - Ivy
West Torrance - Pioneer
San Dimas - Valle Vista
Claremont - San Antonio
Jordan - Moore (At-Large)
Sultana - Mojave River
Hesperia - Mojave River (At-Large)
Harvard Westlake - Del Rey
Oxnard - Channel (At-Large)
Crean Lutheran - Empire
El Toro (2-5) falls within range, with 4.8 rating, but record currently under .500.
DIVISION 9 (3.2 to -0.9) Three (3) At-Large
Kaiser - Sunkist
Paloma Valley - Sunbelt
Coachella Valley - Desert Valley
Vista Del Lago - Sunbelt
Norte Vista - River Valley
Moreno Valley - Inland Valley
Norwalk - Mid-Cities (At-Large)
Sonora - Freeway
Hemet - Inland Valley
Peninsula Bay (At-Large)
Brentwood Gold Coast
Palmdale - Golden
Tahquitz - Mountain Pass
Shadow Hills - Desert Empire
Granite Hills - Desert Sky (At-Large)
Rancho Verde - Ivy
Norwalk currently 6-0, but hasn't played game yet in two-bid league, so projecting as an at-large. Hart (1-5), St. Paul (2-4) Royal (3-4) and John W. North (1-5) all within range, but currently under .500.
DIVISION 10 (-0.9 to -2.7) Five (5) At-Large
Dana Hills - Pacific Hills
Sunny Hills - Freeway
Village Christian - Ironwood (At-Large)
Campbell Hall - Gold Coast
Santa Ana - Orange Coast
Burroughs - Pacific-Upper
South Torrance - Pioneer (At-Large)
Chaffey - San Antonio
Grand Terrace - San Andreas
Westminster - Pac 4
Diamond Bar Hacienda
Garden Grove Big 4
Troy - Freeway (At-Large)
Alta Loma - Mountain West (At-Large)
Northwood - Pacific Hills (At-Large)
Laguna Beach - Pac 4
In this first projection, we've exhausted all out at large teams here in D10. As we get deeper into league play, this will change, as we'll get a more accurate assessment of Auto Qualifiers, just due to sample size.
DIVISION 11 (All Automatic Qualifiers -3.7 to -9.8)
John Muir - Pacific-Upper
Quartz Hill - Golden
La Quinta - Desert Empire
Compton - Moore
Barstow - Desert Sky
Katella - Big 4
Cantwell-Sacred Heart - Camino Real
Patriot - River Valley
Heritage Christian - Ironwood
Baldwin Park - Mt. Baldy 4
Woodbridge - Pacific Valley
Schurr - Almont
La Canada - Rio Hondo
Pacifica (OC) - Empire
Bellflower - Mid-Cities
Capo Valley Christian - Mesquite
DIVISION 12 (All Automatic Qualifiers -10.7 to -24.2)
Carter - San Andreas
Montebello - Almont
Walnut - Hacienda
Indio - Desert Valley
Hueneme - Citrus Coast
Maranatha - Cottonwood
Arroyo - Mission Valley
Yucca Valley - Desert Valley
Montclair - Mt Baldy 4
Bishop Montgomery - Camino Real
Rancho Alamitos - Garden Grove
Beckman - Pacific Valley
Bell Gardens - Almont
Indian Springs - Mountain Valley
Santa Paula - Citrus Coast
Rialto - Skyline
DIVISION 13 (All Automatic Qualifiers -24.4 to -34.8)
Santa Ana Valley - Orange
Azusa - Montview
Western Christian - Mesquite
Bloomington - Skyline
Whittier - Del Rio
Rowland - Sierra
AB Miller - Mountain Valley
Mary Star - Camino Real
Calvary Chapel - Orange Coast
Pomona - Sierra
Hoover - Pacific-Lower
Santa Rosa Academy - Cottonwood
Arrowhead Christian - Mesquite
Cerritos - 605
Rubidoux - Mountain Valley
Pasadena Poly - Rio Hondo
DIVISION 14 (All Automatic Qualifiers -34.9 to -60.2)
Rosemead - Mission Valley
Colton - Skyline
Loara - Garden Grove
Bolsa Grande - Garden Grove
Silver Valley - Manzanita
El Monte - Mission Valley
Anaheim - Orange
Garey - Miramonte
Pioneer - 605
Lynwood - Mid-Cities
Temecula Prep - Manzanita
Gladstone - Montview
Ganesha - Miramonte
Desert Christian - Cottonwood
St Jeanne Lestonnac - Manzanita
Morningside - Ocean
LAST FIVE IN
Northwood (5-1) - Pacific Hills
Third-rated team, behind Laguna Hills (11.7) and Dana Hills (-0.9). Still a week away from start of league play. Could easily capture an AQ as well.
Alta Loma (4-3) - Mountain West
Braves have bye this week, before embarking on league play. Benefit from tough schedule, and will continue, playing in league with likes of Ayala (37.9) and Charter Oak (28.2).
Troy (4-2) - Freeway
4th rated team in six-team league. Lost league opener against La Habra, who has highest CalPreps rating (8.0). Could still claim one of the AQ spots.
South Torrance (3-3) - Pioneer
Lost league opener to West. Win over rival North, this week, would certainly help their cause. All five Pioneer squads earned playoff berths in 2021.
Village Christian (4-2) - Ironwood
Lost league opener to Aquinas. Crusaders rated 3rd, behind Falcons and Ontario Christian. AQ not out of the question for Village Christian, who'll have key match-up wit Heritage Christian on October 22nd.
LAST FIVE OUT
South Pasadena (5-1) - Rio Hondo
Lost league opener to Monrovia, best team in the league. Guessing they'll likely get in as an AQ when all is said and done. Currently have 2nd best CalPreps rating in the league, at -5.0.
Rio Hondo Prep (5-0) - Gold Coast
In two-big league, currently behind both Brentwood (1.5) and Campbell Hall (-0.9), with -5.1 CalPreps rating. No league games have been played, so could certainly play their way in as an AQ.
Brea-Olinda (3-3) - Crestview
Another two-bid league, where no league games have been played. -6.0 CalPreps rating behind Yorba Linda (43.9) and Villa Park (19.0), hence our projection. They'll get their shot at both.
El Rancho (3-3) - Del Rio
Five-team league, with two bids, and El Rancho has yet to play a league game. I'd project La Serna (42) for the league's top bid, but with a -6.1 rating, Dons are 2nd rated team in league. California (-10.9) is closest, so 2nd AQ certainly achievable.
Canyon (Ventura) 3-3 - Foothill
Tough road for the Cowboys. Three teams ahead of them in six-team league project into much higher divisions West Ranch and Saugus in Division 3, with Valencia in Division 4. Golden Valley with 11.1 rating, projects into Division 7. Canyon currently with -7.0 CalPreps rating, gets them on Friday.