CIF Playoff Projections
October 21st, 2022
HOT OFF THE PRESSES!
Projections through Week 9 games. Quick explanation as to how we projected Automatic Qualifiers (AQ), in leagues where the standings aren’t clear cut, as to which teams might be in first, second, or third place.
Pioneer and Artesia, who play this week, are both 1-1. Projecting Pioneer as the 2nd Place AQ, based on their better overall record.
Alhambra and Montebello are both 2-2 in league, after four games. Projecting Alhambra as 3rd AQ out of the league, based on their win over Montebello.
Damien and Upland Tied for 2nd Place at 2-1. Projecting Damien as 2nd Place AQ, due to their 27-18 win over Upland, 9/30.
Culver City and Redondo tied for 3rd Place, at 2-2. Projecting Culver City as 3rd AQ, by virtue of their 28-0 win over Redondo, 10/7.
Katella and Segerstrom tied for 2nd Place at 1-1, and are scheduled to play on 10/28. Projecting Katella as the 2nd Place AQ, due to their overall better record.
BIG WEST LOWER
ML King and Temecula Valley tied for 3rd a 2-2. Projecting King as 3rd Place AQ, due to their win over Temecula Valley on 10/20.
Bishop Montgomery and Mary Star of the Sea are tied for third, at 3-2, Bishop Montgomery projected as 3rd AQ by virtue of 38-27 win over Mary Star, on 9/30.
Los Osos and Glendora ties for 2nd, at 1-1. Los Osos projected as 2nd place AQ, by virtue of their 48-14 win over Glendora, on 10/20.
Beaumont and Yucaipa are tied for 3rd, at 2-2. Projecting 3rd Place AQ for Beaumont, for better overall record (7-2). Teams scheduled to play October 28th.
Santa Paula and Hueneme both 2-1; Hueneme projected as 2nd Place AQ, by virtue of 35-16 win over Santa Paula on October 7.
Villa Park and Foothill both 1-1, scheduled to play 10/28. Projecting Villa Park as 2nd AQ, due to their higher CalPreps rating.
Both Harvard-Westlake and La Salle are 2-1. Projecting Harvard-Westlake as 2nd Place AQ, based on higher Cal Preps rating. Teams scheduled to play in Week 10.
El Rancho and California both 1-1, and scheduled to play 10/28. Projecting El Rancho as AQ, based on better overall record.
Fullerton & Sunny Hills are both 2-2, Projecting Sunny Hills as the 3rd Place AQ, by virtue of their 14-13 win over Fullerton, on 9/30.
Bolsa Grande and Santiago are both 2-2, projecting Bolsa Grande as 3rd Place AQ, due to their 14-8 win over Santiago on 9/30.
Mayfair and LaMirada are both 2-2. Projecting Mayfair as 3rd Place AQ, based on their 16-14 win over La Mirada on October 7th.
Rio Hondo Prep and Campbell Hall are both 1-1, scheduled to play on October 28th. Projecting Campbell Hall as 2nd Place AQ, based on overall winning percentage.
Walnut and Nogales are both 1-1. Projecting Walnut as 2nd Place AQ, bu virtue of their 35-0 win over Nogales on 10/20.
Moreno Valley and Rancho Christian are both 2-1. Projecting Moreno Valley as 2nd Place AQ, due to better overall record. The teams are scheduled to play October 28th.
Ontario Christian and Heritage Christian, both 2-2. Ontario Christian projected as 3rd Place AQ, due to better overall record.
Three-way tie between North, Elsinore and Temescal Canyon. North lost to Temescal Canyon 10/14, but beat Elsinore on 10/21. Temescal Canyon beat North 10/14, and plays Elsinore this week. Projecting Elsinore as 3rd place AQ, based on overall record.
Gahr and Norwalk tied for 2nd Place, at 1-1. Projecting Gahr as 2nd place AQ bid, based on 10/21 26-6 win over Norwalk.
Three-way tie between Notre Dame. Serra, and Bishop Amat, all 2-2 in league. Teams are 1-1 against each other. (Serra 2-0, but win over Notre Dame ruled a forfeit) Projecting Bishop Amat as 3rd Place AQ, based on best overall record (6-3).
Gabrielino and Rosemead are both 2-2 in league. Projecting Gabrielino as 3rd Place AQ, due to 10-7 win over Rosemead, on October 14.
Three-way tie for 3rd place, between Indian Springs, Jurupa Valley and AB Miller, all 2-2. Jurupa Valley beat Indian Springs 43-6 (10/14) but lost to AB Miller 22-8 (9/30). AB Miller and Indian Springs play 10/21. Projecting Indian Springs as 3rd Place AQ, based on overall record.
Ayala and Bonita both 1-1, tied for 2nd Place. Teams play on 10/28. Projecting Ayala as 2nd place AQ, based on better overall record.
Sierra Vista and Montclair tied for 2nd place, at 1-1. Projecting Sierra Vista as 2nd Place AQ, based on 29-3 win over Montclair, 10/21.
El Dorado and Canyon tied for 2nd Place, at 1-1, with teams, scheduled to play 10/28. Projecting El Dorado as 2nd place AQ, based on higher CalPreps ranking.
Cavalry Chapel and St Margaret's tied for 3rd Place, at 3-2. Teams scheduled to play 10/27. Projecting St. Margarets as 3rd Place AQ, based on higher CalPreps rating.
Westminster and Ocean View, tied for 2nd place, both teams 1-1. Projecting Westminster and 2nd Place AQ, due to their 35-0 win over Ocean View on 10/14.
Laguna Hills and Dana Hills tied for 2nd Place, at 1-1. Projecting Laguna Hills as 2nd Place AQ, due to their 42-21 win over Dana Hills on 10/21.
Woodbridge and University tied for 2nd Place, at 1-1. Projecting Woodbridge as 2nd Place AQ, based on better overall record. Teams scheduled to play on 10/28.
La Canada and San Marino, tied at 2-2. Projecting La Canada as 3rd Place AQ, due to their 24-6 win over San Marino on 9/30.
Trabuco Hills and Aliso Niguel tied for 2nd Place, at 1-1. Trabuco Hills projected for 2nd Place AQ, due to 31-20 win over Aliso Niguel on 10/14.
Tesoro and San Clemente tied for 2nd Place, with identical 6-3 records. Projecting San Clemente as 2nd Place AQ, due to CalPreps rating. Teams scheduled to play 10/28.
Riverside Poly and Vista Del Lago tied for 2nd place at 1-1, and scheduled to play 10/28. Projecting Vista Del Lago as 2nd Place AQ, due to better overall record.
Eisenhower and Summit tied for 2nd place, at 1-1. Projecting Eisenhower as 2nd Place AQ, due to their 14-10 win over Summit, 10/21.
Santa Margarita and Orange Lutheran tied for 3rd Place, at 2-2. Projecting O Lu as 3rd Place AQ, based on 28-26 win over Santa Margarita on 9/30
Los Altos and San Dimas are both 1-1. Projecting Los Altos as 2nd Place AQ, due to their 17-14 win over San Dimas on 10/21.
Field projected, based on CalPreps ratings, and the CIF-SS Playoff Bulletin. 176 AQ teams, and 40 At-Large teams. Per the bulletin, preference for At-Large playoff teams, given to those teams over .500. Once those teams are placed, teams one-game under .500 in this week’s field, will be slotted into their respective divisions. I’ll also note teams that fall in range of the division, but were not included, due to their records being under .500.
Divisions 12 to 14, feature all AQ teams.
Division 11 features the last At-Large team in the field, which is Patriot, out of the River Valley League. Santiago (1-8, Big West Lower) and Shadow Hills (4-5, Desert Empire) fall within range, but are under .500.
Division 10 features five (5) At-Large Teams. El Toro (2-7, Sea View) Temescal Canyon (3-6, Ivy) Royal (4-5, Canyon) Peninsula (4-5, Bay) Alta Loma (4-5, Mountain West), Paraclete (1-8, Angelus) Riverside Poly (4-5, Sunbelt) all fall within range, but are under .500.
Division 9 features Four (4) At-Large teams. St. Paul (3-6, Angelus) and John W. North (3-6, Ivy) both fall within range, but are under .500.
Four more At-Large teams in Division 8. Hart (3-6, Foothill) Westlake (2-7, Marmonte) Glendora (3-6, Citrus 4) Valley Christian (3-6, Ironwood) and Hesperia (4-5, Mojave River) all within range for Division 8, but are under .500.
Six (6) At-Large teams find their way into Division 7.
Division 6 features six (6) more At-Large teams. Oak Park should also be identified as an At-Large team.
Five more At-Large teams in Division 5.
Division 4 features two (2) At-Large teams. Alemany (2-6, Mission) falls within range for this division, but is under .500.
Three (3) At-Large bids to fill Division 3. Servite (1-8 Trinity) falls within range for D3, but is under .500.
Four (4) At-Large Teams in Division 2.
We have our first “wrinkle” in Division 1. For the 8th spot, both Chaminade and Orange Lutheran have the same Cal Preps rating (56.9). So, the committee could conceivably place three Trinity League teams in the top pod. But guessing they’ll keep Chaminade with the Big Boys, and have O Lu at the top of D2.
LAST FIVE IN
Patriot - River Valley
Granite Hills - Desert Sky
Dana Hills - Pacific Hills
La Salle - Del Rey
Kaiser - Sunkist
LAST TEN OUT
Chaffey - San Antonio
Sonora - Freeway
Heritage Christian - Ironwood
Irvine - Pacific Hills
Rio Hondo Prep - Gold Coast
West Valley - Mountain Pass
Montebello - Almont
San Gabriel - Almont
Santa Paula - Citrus Coast
Perris - Mountain Pass
I’m planning on putting out a projection next week as well, hopefully I can get it posted before the CIF does their thing. Thanks to all for reading, and especially those that gave some feedback. So many playoff implications, and league titles still up for grabs, with probably half the AQ slots truly up for grabs.
One thing I’ve observed is that At-Large bids get harder to come by with each passing week. The first projection we did, the last team in had a Cal Preps rating of -11.5. Last week, that number dropped to -2.3. This week, the last team in, had a CalPreps rating of -1.8.
Enjoy the games this week, and then we can watch this whole playoff picture come together. Until next week.